KCNY and Currency
Again, the week in NY “ICE” and for the exchange rate was volatile. In the exchange rate the dollar strengthened again, some analysts mention the correction of the currency through an exit of risk positions and companies taking advantage of the appreciation of the real to get out of part of their debts in dollars. The exchange rate movement contributed to the drop of the NY “ICE” on Thursday, the market had been in a consecutive appreciation movement over the week.
• According to Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers, due to the effects of La Ninã, the March coffee production was down by 13%, totaling 914,000 bags compared to 1.1 million bags the previous year;
• According to ABIC, in its annual indicator study, Brazil increased its coffee consumption by 1.71% between November 2020 and October 2021, if compared to the previous 12 months, totaling 21.54 million 60kg bags;
• HedgePoint, in a report on Wednesday, states that the war between Russia and Ukraine is expected to decrease coffee consumption in Russia by approximately 1 million 60-kg bags and in Ukraine by 400,000 60-kg bags;
• Still in its report, HedgePoint points out the reduction of trade and the increase in prices as reasons for the decrease in consumption in Russia. And in Ukraine, the displacement of the population, reducing consumption in the country;
• Certified stocks in NY “ICE” closed on Thursday at 1,080,179 bags of 60 kg;
• On Thursday, Cecafe released a study on the carbon footprint of coffee production in Brazil. The study analyzed 40 producing properties divided between the Cerrado, Sul de Minas, and Matas de Minas regions. The result was positive, showing that good Brazilian agricultural practices provide greater capture than emission of carbon equivalent gases;
MAY/22: Min: 224,20 | Max: 232,25 | Last: 229,40
BRL/USD: Min: 4,5836 | Max: 4,7722 | Last: 4,7170
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The month of April began with high temperatures in all coffee regions, and the arrival of a cold front on the coast of the Southeast region has organized isolated rains. For next week, the forecast is for the arrival of a new cold front in the Southeast region starting Sunday. It should advance to the north of Minas Gerais throughout the week. The forecast is for light rain, because the frontal system is coming with low intensity. The presence of clouds should keep the temperatures mild.
Rain forecast for next week:
- Sul de Minas region: between 10 and 20 mm;
- Zona da Mata region: between 5 and 10 mm;
- Cerrado region: between 5 and 10 mm;
- Garça region: between 15 and 20 mm;
- Alta Mogiana region: between 10 and 20 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The local market is at a slow pace with a few trades reported. Reduced supply in this final stretch of the 21/22 harvest. The arrival of new coffees, 22/23, is highly anticipated as an opportunity to bring more liquidity to the market.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.220,00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.270,00;
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.210,00
14/16: R$ 1.180,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.100,00;
600 defects without buyer over the week, seller close to R$ 1.090,00 ~ R$ 1.100,00. Local industry with virtually no interest for Arabica;
FOB market with some deals reported, short-term demand and new crop, mainly for certified coffees. There is a strong demand for certified coffee, but on the other hand the supply is scarce and prices are not attractive to the final customer.
LOGISTICS
Logistics unchanged, situation at North American ports still critical due to congestion and other operational restrictions. Most destinations with bookings being confirmed only for May. The container availability and release situation continues to delay schedules and shipments.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +176.168.280 (82% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: +161.626.084 (75,23% of the population)
Cases: + 30.066.264 million
Deaths: 660.782
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com