KCNY and Currency
The week in NY “ICE” was full of up and down movements. In the exchange rate, the inflow of foreign currency into Brazil remains high. In NY “ICE”, some analyses believe that the exit of speculator funds from part of their positions led to a sharp drop in the market last Wednesday and the closing at a new low in the trading session on Thursday.
• According to Cecafé, Brazil exported 3.622 million 60-kg bags of coffee in March 2022, a volume 6% lower than in March 2021;
• Also according to Cecafé’s monthly report, Brazil exported 19% less coffee to Russia in the first quarter of the year, moving the country down from 6th to 8th place in the ranking of importers;
• HedgePoint estimates in a study for Reuters that for the fiscal year 21/22, ending in June, there should be less demand for coffee by Brazilians, given the increase in prices of the product and the slowdown in the economy;
• According to the Safras & mercados consultancy, by the 12th of December, 29% of the 22/23 harvest had been sold, compared to 31% in the same period last year. And for the 21/22 harvest, 92% of it was sold;
• ICE certified stocks closed Wednesday at 1,077,409 60-kg bags;
• Today, 14 April, we celebrate World Coffee Day, the second most widely consumed beverage in the world;
MAY/22: Min: 221 | Max: 237,75 | Last: 223,60
BRL/USD: Min: 4,6210 | Max: 4,7411 | Last: 4,6940
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The cold front that passes along the coast of the Southeast will probably cause light rain in some coffee regions between Thursday and Saturday, but nothing significant for agriculture. The polar air mass behind the frontal system is expected to leave the next few days with mild temperatures in the early morning in the regions of Sul de Minas, Zona da Mata, Mogiana and Garça. It is the first polar air mass this year but there is no frost forecast.
Rain forecast for next week:
- Sul de Minas region: between 10 and 15 mm;
- Zona da Mata region: between 5 and 10 mm;
- Cerrado region: between 0 and 5 mm;
- Garça region: between 0 and 5 mm;
- Alta Mogiana region: between 10 and 15 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The local market has stalled, the bullish week has scared off sellers who are waiting for opportunities to assimilate the price movement. Supply continues to be reduced in this final stretch of the 21/22 crop. The demand for Arabica consumption is non-existent and the local industry has directed almost all its interest to Conilon to meet their needs.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.240,00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.280,00;
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.230,00
14/16: R$ 1.200,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.080,00;
600 defects without buyer over the week, seller close to R$ 1.120,00
FOB market with very little business, the demand is almost exclusive for certified coffees. Short week due to the Easter holiday.
LOGISTICS
The supply of space on the routes to Europe and the USA became even tighter during the week. Ships are virtually full until mid-May, which reduces the possibility of new bookings for departure in the next six weeks. For Japan, new bookings can be made for departure in the first half of May.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +176.378.932 (82,1% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: +162.407.340 (75,6% of the population)
Cases: + 30.209.276 million
Deaths: 661.710
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com