KCNY and Currency
The week in NY “ICE” and for the currency was full of bullish and bearish movements. In foreign exchange, the flow of foreign currency into Brazil is no longer as strong as that seen in recent strengths of the real. At the same time, the new lockdowns in China bring unrest in the markets, decreased risk appetite and higher logistics costs, as does the war between Russia and Ukraine. On NY “ICE” there was a downward movement in the middle of the week, interpreted by some as the beginning of the harvest of the new crop.
• According to the Coffee Executive Summary, April 2022, the estimated average yield for the 2022 crop is 30.6 bags per hectare;
• Also according to the summary, the estimated production is 55.7 million 60-kg bags, 38.7 million bags of Arabica and 17 million of conilon;
• According to Citigroup, global coffee production in 22/23 may reach 179.3 million 60kg bags;
• Citigroup also estimates a world consumption of 175.8 million 60kg bags, a surplus of 3.5 million bags, against a deficit of 7.3 million bags in crop year 21/22;
• NY “ICE” certified stocks closed Wednesday at 1,124,672 60-kg bags;
JULY/22: Min: 214,25 | Max: 226,25| Last: 222,85
BRL/USD: Min: 4,8033 | Max: 5,0448| Last: 4,9130
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The rainfall observed in April was below the historical average in all coffee growing regions. Two cold fronts passed through the Southeast region, however, only one combined the rains in the South, Zona da Mata and Mogiana regions.
The dry air mass acted in recent days in all coffee regions, leaving the weather conditions typical of the time of year, with clear skies during the day and no cloudiness at night.
For the next few days, the cold front that passes along the coast of the Southeast region will not influence the weather conditions in the coffee growing regions, keeping the weather conditions stable. There are no forecasts of rain for next week.
| Observed rainfall | Average rainfall | Percentage | |
| Zona da Mata Region | 70 | 65 | 107 |
| South Region | 15 | 70 | 21 |
| Cerrado Region | 65 | 75 | 86 |
| Mogiana Region | 16 | 77 | 21 |
| Garças Region | 8 | 80 | 1 |
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
Local and FOB market with little business.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.230,00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.280,00;
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.210,00
14/16: R$ 1.180,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.100,00;
600 defects without buyer over the week, seller close to R$ 1.100,00
LOGISTICS
Lockdowns in China add to concerns about logistics flows and international freight values.
Most of the ships for May are already committed to many destinations in the Americas, Europe and Asia. New bookings are being confirmed for the first weeks of June, and there are already restrictions for some destinations such as Israel and Germany, for example.
MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have low container stocks.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +182.563.727 (90,8% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: +163.815.874 (81,5% of the population)
Cases: + 30.414.677 million
Deaths: 663.289 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com