NYSE and BRL/USD
Arabica quotes followed a gradual upward trend throughout the week with macro support, a fall in Brazil’s coffee exports, and concerns over Brazilian production. The dollar performed weaker and the Brazilian real more stable, which gave support to Arabica. GCA stocks in the US fell in March to 5.68m (-111k), the lowest volume since June 2015. ICE certified stocks of Arabica, meanwhile, increased to 1.875 million.
May/21: Min: 125.75 | Max: 133.45 | Last: 133.20 USC/lb
BRL/USD: Min: 5.5943| Max: 5.7556 | Last: 5.6263
*Data as of the completion of this report
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
Few offers in the domestic market for the short term, with most deals being done for future delivery on September 21 and early 2022. The FOB export market also continues slow. Some demand for short-term covering for certified coffees, with external demand, matched with internal supply. Producers and importers are cautiously following the progress of the 21/22 season.
The coffee harvest in Brazil has already started in the lower and warmer regions, mainly in the Zona da Mata. Some growers have reported a higher than expected incidence of borer/insect damage, especially in crops of low production. The rains at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021 favored the recovery of the plant’s vigor, which are well sprouted and show good branch growth. However, it is important to remember that during 2020 we faced a long drought period and high temperatures, which affected the 21/22 crop and may still have its effects felt in the 22/23 crop.
The last few days have been dry for most Arabica regions. Some rains over this weekend, but should not be enough to replenish the water reserves in the soil. The forecast for May is for long dry days, which is positive for the harvest process of the 21/22 crop, but worrisome for the 22/23 crop. In the South of Minas, Cerrado, Paraná, and São Paulo the rains are expected to occur within the next 3 days. In the Zona da Mata, Espírito Santo, and Bahia the frequency should be higher, which should occur this Friday and between Monday and Thursday of next week. (Source: SOMAR Meteorology)
On Tuesday, CECAFE reported that total exports of green Arabica coffee from Brazil in March amounted to 2.716 million bags, a drop of 6.3% compared to the same period last year. However, the accumulated total coffee exports in the first quarter grew by 10.4% p.a. The Council also expressed its concern about the future of the pace of shipments and availability of standard food containers.
There is a shortage of food-grade containers, lack of space, and daily vessel omissions with all shipowners. We ask our customers to urgently send shipping instructions and to contact shipowners to make space and equipment available to meet the shipments in May and June.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
The average number of cases and deaths in Brazil is stable, with a two-week reduction of 7% and 2%, respectively. Of every 100 Brazilians, 4 have already been vaccinated. In the coffee-producing states, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Bahia show stability in the moving average of cases and deaths. In Espírito Santo and Paraná, the moving average is on the rise.
People who received the first dose: + 25 mi (12.02% of the population)
Fully vaccinated people: + 8.5 mi (4.04% of the population)
Cases: + 13.758 mi
Deaths: + 366 K
Let’s keep believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team