Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – Aug 30-Sept 03, 2021 | Atlantica
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Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – Aug 30-Sept 03, 2021

by Sep 3, 2021Market report10 comments

Siga e ouça no spotify! Novos episódios em português aos sábados pela manhã.

KCNY and DOLLAR

In another week of highs, the Arabica contract December/21 operated the period near the psychological barrier of USC 2.00/lb, but technical falls took the adjustment of the week to 193 USC/lb.

  • The drought problem in Brazil that seems to be lingering and the severe frosts in July pose a major risk to the 2022 crop, providing strong support to prices;
  • ICO export data released on Wednesday showed a 1.3% increase in global exports, putting pressure on prices;
  • The Brazilian Real, more appreciated this week, traded between 5.11 and 5.22 per dollar, providing support for coffee quotations;
  • Independence holiday on September 7th in Brazil. In some companies, there is a recess on Monday (06), including Atlantica.

December/21: Min: 191.15 | Max: 201.55 | Last: 193 USC/lb
BRL/USD: Min: 5.1165| Max: 5.226 | Last: 5.1800
*Data as of the completion of this report

CLIMATE

  • According to Aneel (the national electric energy agency), Brazil is experiencing the worst drought in 91 years. The water shortage is reflecting negatively on crops, surcharges in electricity and rising inflation in Brazil;
  • Forecasts are for dry weather and temperatures above 35º between September 3 and 7 in the Sul de Minas, Cerrado and Mogiana regions;
  • The conditions of dry weather, low humidity and heat are not only worrisome for flowering, but are also favoring fires in coffee plantations;
  • In areas that suffered frost, it is planned to:
    • In most of the affected areas, producers plan to prune the main trunk for rejuvenation, with significant production return in 2024/2025;
    • Eradicate the old plantations and wait to replant at another time, since many seedling nurseries were affected and the cost of planting coffee is high;
    • or replace the eradicated crops with annual crops;
  • There is a tendency for October to be more humid, important for flowering and plant recovery.

DOMESTIC and FOB MARKET

  • Demand is a little stronger than in previous weeks in FOB exports, but still below normal volumes for the harvest period, as well as business in the domestic market;
  • Producers remain extremely firm on prices, believing in new highs;
  • The bica corrida good cup offered between R$1050 to 1070 and fine cup at R$ 1100 to 1120;
  • The back-to-back businesses of Rio Minas are practically without liquidity, because of a much smaller offer than in previous years, due to lower harvest volume and lack of rain. When sellers do appear, they offer small lots of 500 to 1000 bags, with asking prices of R$ 1080 for the 17/18 screen and R$ 1050 for the 14/16 screen;
  • There are reports of dealers abroad that still have stock of Rio Minas and are selling quality at more attractive prices than at origin;
  • Harvest of the 21/22 arabica crop in Brazil is coming to an end, estimated at 95% already harvested and has good cupping profile and screen size;
  • The harvest is now in the phase of collecting fruits that were left on the plant or on the ground in most plantations, or still in progress in higher areas, where maturation is delayed.

LOGISTICS

The scenario of difficulties in maritime logistics continues, but even worse this week:

  • There is a great shortage of food-grade containers, cargo-rolls and expressive increases in international freights;
  • There is no more available space for shipments in September for most destinations, only mid-October;
  • For the U.S., only shipments from November in some routes;
  • All these difficulties have generated a lot of rework and extra costs in the logistical operation of exporters, besides delays in coffee shipments affecting the schedule of industries abroad.

COVID-19 IN BRAZIL

  • People who received the first dose: +133 mi (62.37% of the population)
  • Fully vaccinated people: +64.6 million (30.3% of the population)
  • Cases: + 20.67 million
  • Deaths: 577,605 thousand


Let’s keep believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Stay well,
Atlantica Coffee Team

10 Comments

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