KCNY and Currency
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange worked between 149.55 and 156.25 cents per pound on the December/23 expiry date, the most liquid one, totalling a volatility of 670 points. During the week, the market has been trying to recover from several consecutive sessions of losses, but there is a lot of uncertainty about fundamental factors and the dollar has had a direct impact on the commodities markets.
On the foreign exchange front, the dollar depreciated during the week as uncertainties over the US interest rate continued. The president of the Federal Reserve said that the US central bank will act cautiously with regard to raising the country’s interest rates.
On Friday (18) the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the August 15th positioning of traders in the coffee market, which showed that investment funds significantly increased their short positions, totalling 26,042 lots, representing an increase of 10,533 lots.
Certified coffee stocks on the NY ICE closed Thursday (24) at 512,753 60kg bags, with no bags pending approval.
SEPTEMBER/23: Min: 149.55 | Max: 156.25 | Last: 152.70
BRL/USD: Min: 4.8466 | Max: 4.996 | Last: 4.8769
*Data as of the completion of this report.
WEATHER
Weather conditions are expected to change from Saturday in almost all coffee-growing regions. The cold front coming from the south of Brazil arrives on the coast of São Paulo on Saturday afternoon and could cause heavy rain with lightning, strong winds and even hailstorms in the coffee-growing regions of Mogiana, South Minas and the Zona da Mata.
On Sunday, the cold front is expected to hit northern Espírito Santo and southern Bahia. In the Cerrado region, cloudiness is expected to increase from Monday onwards, with favorable conditions for light rain.
The next few days should have colder temperatures due to the occurrence of rain and the presence of cloudiness. There is no risk of frost.
Rain forecast for the week
South Minas region: between 40 and 50 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 40 and 50 mm.
Cerrado region: between 10 and 20 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 20 and 30 mm.
Garça region: between 5 and 10 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The downward movements in coffee prices on the NY exchange over the last few weeks have left the physical market stuck, as the seller and buyer bases are still very far apart. The domestic market has been slow to trade, with occasional deals taking place according to movements on the NY ICE and the dollar. On FOB, occasional deals have been reported and the differentials have closed a little.
The requests from sellers in the domestic market are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 800,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 850,00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 750,00 but with few sellers
600 defects: close to R$ 710,00;
LOGISTICS
According to the A Tribuna portal, the Port of Santos was closed for two and a half hours on Thursday (24) due to bad weather, with strong winds of around 56km/h.
Itaguaí depots are still experiencing low stocks of food grade containers, especially 40′ DRY. We advise you to send your Shipping Instructions as early as possible.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.