Siga e ouça no spotify! Novos episódios em português aos sábados pela manhã.
KCNY and dollar
One more week of high volatility in NY “ICE” and at the exchange rate. Difficult market for its participants with the offer of the physical in the hands of the producer, inverted spreads and upward movements that represent significant daily adjustments, in addition to that, the financial volume retained in late shipments at the origin, compromising the receipts of sales foreseen for months ago.
- The Ômicron variant, even though it is less serious, but still very transmissible, continues to bring uncertainties globally in terms of vulnerability to the emergence of new strains and their impacts on the global economy. The general director of World Health Organization said that rich countries should help low-income countries with low levels of vaccination to put pressure on the virus in various parts of the world, such as Ômicron, for example, recently identified in South Africa, a country with only 25% of the vaccinated population. The African continent has about 7.7% of the population vaccinated and the other continents have above 50%. The South America region is the most advanced in the world, with 59.7% of the population vaccinated, according to Our World in Data;
- During the week, the CNA (Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock) announced that it is expected a slowed growth of between 3 and 5% for agribusiness in Brazil in 2022 amidst economic uncertainties. And, it says that the big challenge will be the cost of production;
- In its monthly market report, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) released updated production and consumption figures for the 20/21 crop year. With 169.641 million bags of 60 kilos of production and consumption of 167.670 million, the latter having an increase of 1.9% compared to 19/20. These values represent a surplus of 1.971 million;
- Rabobank reported this week that the market can expect a very good conilon crop with potential for a record as the plants show good development having benefited from the recent good rains. This forecast, if confirmed, will help to supply the local industry, giving some relief to Arabica;
- The Central Bank readjusted the Selic to 9.25, reaching the highest level since 2017, due to high levels of inflation despite the slowdown in economic activity and expectations of a challenging 2022.
March/22: Min: 235.95| Max: 252.35 | Last: 236.80
BRL/USD: Min: 5,5184| Max: 5,7018| Last: 5,5780
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
In December, the volume of rainfall observed to date is around 60% compared to the historical average in the southern regions and Zona da Mata. In the Cerrado region it has rained 30% of the expected volume so far. And in the regions of Alta Mogiana and Garça the deficit remains high, the observed volume is around 20% of the expected for the month.
Rain forecast for next week:
- Sul de Minas: 20-30 mm.
- Matas de Minas: 30-40 mm.
- Cerrado: around 50 mm.
- Alta Mogiana: around 20 mm.
- Garça: around 10 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
Domestic market remains with low-liquidity, offering physical coffee at prices unmatched by buyers’ bases;
FOB with low business liquidity. Buyers with no appetite for current spreads that haven’t readjusted at the same rate as New York’s highs. At the same time, very mismatched differentials between different FOB sellers. Buyers of rio minas feel more and more the difficulty in replacing the quality, very low offer for #17/18
Coffee prices on the internal market;
- Bica fine cup: R$ 1.550,00 (seller) and R$ 1.480/1500,00 (buyer);
- Bica good cup: R$ 1480,00 (seller) and R$ 1420,00 (buyer)
- Rio # 17/18: R$ 1.530,00 (seller) and R$ 1490/1500,00 (buyer);
- Rio # 14/16: R$ 1.480,00 (seller) and R$ 1430/1440,00 (buyer)
- Bica Rio Minas: R$ 1380,00 and up, but without offers;
LOGISTICS
The crisis in the maritime-port scenario apparently worsened in November and imposed even greater difficulties for the coffee chain.The crisis in the maritime-port scenario remains delicate, impacting performance, revenues and generating additional financial and storage costs. The rollover of shipping dates and vessels, booking cancellations, the increase in the frequency of anticipating cargo deadlines so that exporters cannot comply, ship omissions and the lack of containers continue to be major challenges for 2021.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: 159.967.663 (74,99% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: 138.844.928 (65,09% of the population)
Cases: +22,175 million
Deaths: 616.504.
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com