NYICE and Dollar
ICE Arabica stocks increased this week to 1.7 million bags. Brazil’s crop year 20/21 recorded the best result for the period in the last five years.
The Brazilian government’s announcement of new emergency aid for the most vulnerable population brought fiscal concerns. The approval in the House of Representatives for greater autonomy of the Central Bank, the body that determines the country’s monetary policy, brought optimism about controlling inflation and reducing interest rates in Brazil, but it still needs to be sanctioned by President Bolsonaro.
March/21: Min: 122.25 | Max: 126.85 | Last: 121.75 USC/lb
BRL/USD: Min: 5.3030 | Max: 5.4473 | Last: 5.3660
*Data as of the completion of this report.
LOGISTICS
There is a low stock of food-grade containers with most shipowners. The omissions of vessels and the consequent accumulation of cargoes at the ports have made bookings rollovers frequent. We have also noticed space reductions for some destinations, such as the United States and European countries.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB EXPORTS
The domestic market remained calm, as producers held firm on prices, braking new business, but attentive to the price drops in KCNY. Low demand in the export FOB market, with unattractive replacement differentials.
WEATHER
A week of rainy weather and mild temperatures in most coffee regions, with emphasis on high volumes of rain in Matas de Minas / Zona da Mata. Rain forecast for the next 7 days:
150mm – South of Minas
150mm – Cerrado
100mm – Alta Mogiana
Irregular and lower rainfall volumes – Matas de Minas, Espirito Santo, Bahia and Paraná
*Source: Somar Meteorologia
AGRIBUSINESS GDP
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of agribusiness in Brazil grew 19.66% from January to November 2020, showing a strong increase in income, closely linked to the increase in production of major crops such as coffee, sugar cane, soybeans, etc. The devaluation of the Brazilian currency also contributes to greater profitability of exported products.
CECAFE EXPORTS
In the 20/21 Crop Year (from July/20 to January/21), Brazil exported 27.8 million bags of coffee, an increase of 17.2% compared to the previous crop year, the best result for the period in the last five years.
In January, exports of green Arabica beans from Brazil totaled 2,651 million bags (84.2% of the total volume of coffee), a 9.3% decrease compared to the same period of the previous year. The foreign exchange revenue from total coffee exports reached USD 404.13 million, equivalent to R$ 2.2 billion, an increase of 10.2% in Brazilian reais.
CARNIVAL HOLIDAY
Atlantica Coffee’s offices will be closed from February 15 to 17, 2021. We will resume activities on Thursday, February 18. During these days, for support related to exports, please contact our team on duty:
Logistics: Danilo Vitor – danilo.vitor@atlanticacoffee.com
Trading: Andrea Franklin – andrea.franklin@atlanticacoffee.com | Irene Vieira – irene.vieira@atlanticacoffee.com
NYICE will be closed on the next Monday (15). B3, the Brazilian stock exchange, will be closed until 1pm next Wednesday (17).
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
Brazil registered an average of 1,073 deaths from the disease a day this week, totaling 22 days above the daily average of 1,000.
Vaccinated since Jan 17: + 4.7 million
Percent of the population vaccinated: 2.18 %
Cases: + 9.7 mi
Deaths: + 236 K
Recovered: + 8.637 mi
Let’s keep believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Stay well,
Atlantica Coffee Team