KCNY and Currency
After a week of oscillations in the NY ICE prices, the coffee market is consolidating at prices around usc 250 lb/p. The constant decreases in certified stocks, logistical obstacles and the divergent analyses regarding the size of the 22/23 crop keep the market leaning towards the upside.
Regarding the currency, in 2022 Brazil was the country where the dollar reduced its value the most, with a devaluation close to 7.5% in face of higher interest rates and greater interest of investors, resulting in a large flow of investments in the country.
• In relation to the nominal price, the coffee price reaches the highest level since December 1999;
• Colombian Federation expects a smaller coffee crop due to the effects of rainfall resulting from La Niña;
• Geopolitical crisis in Russia worries the markets and investors, thus being an important point of attention over the week;
• Brazil and the United States are planning to raise interest rates in the coming months;
March/22: Min: 242,90 | Max: 254,55 | Last: 246,00
BRL/USD: Min: 5,1230 | Max: 5,2656 | Last: 5,1430
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
Throughout the month there were 3 cold fronts that acted in the Southeast region, and in all of them the presence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone was observed, which creates a moisture corridor between the Amazon and the Atlantic Ocean. Whenever this phenomenon occurs, the rains last for several days and there are also isolated thunderstorms.
The cold front that acted in the last days is getting weaker, however there are still possibilities of moderate rains in the coffee regions in the South, Cerrado and Zona da Mata.
Rain forecast for next week:
- Sul de Minas region: between 100 and 120 mm;
- Zona da Mata region: between 80 and 100 mm;
- Cerrado region: between 30 and 50 mm;
- Garça region: between 10 and 20 mm;
- Alta Mogiana region: between 20 and 30 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The domestic market is calmer with few trades reported. The prices between buyer and seller are still far apart.
- Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.480,00;
- Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.530,00;
- Rio Minas 17/18: R$ 1.510,00. Running screen with 30% low grades near to R$ 1.400,00;
- 600 defects: near R$1.400,00.
For FOB export, some demand for fast shipping, certificates and buyers are already showing interest for the new crop.
LOGISTICS
The stock of equipment remains at a critical level, which has caused constant delays. New bookings to Japan have been confirmed for mid-March, while the destinations of Hamburg and Bremen remain unavailable for allocation in the following weeks.
The Port of Oakland continues to have serious operational problems in North America, which has caused some shipowners to interrupt the service.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
Brazil completed one week showing a decrease in the cases of the disease, but maintains a high average in the number of victims per day. The state of São Paulo plans to apply the fourth dose of the vaccine from April on.
People who received the first dose: +170.609.984 (79,42% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: +153.442.549 (71,43% of the population)
Cases: + 27.941.476 million
Deaths: 641.997
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com