KCNY and Currency
The NY coffee market opened the first quarter of 2023 on a downward trend, driven by a mix of technical factors and news released during the week. One notable figure that came out was the Brazilian consumption number, as reported by ABIC, which showed a 1.1% reduction in 2022 compared to the previous year. Certified stocks in NY continued to decline, but the pending numbers showed an increase of over 50,000 bags. Rainfall in coffee-growing regions decreased this week, which is positive news for maintaining crops.
Global inflation continues to be a concern for the market, especially after market data was released in Europe, the United States, and Brazil, showing higher-than-expected figures. This has led many to believe that central banks around the world will not ease monetary policy as soon as initially anticipated. As a result, commodity, interest rate, and stock markets operated with caution throughout the week. In Brazil, the government’s attacks on the Central Bank gained more traction, with speeches from the presidency and ministries criticizing the institution’s president for his handling of monetary policy.
MAY/23: Min: 176,80 | Max: 189,85 | Last: 177,05
BRL/USD: Min: 5,1697 | Max: 5,2515| Last: 5,2040
*Data as of completion of this report.
WEATHER
In the next few days, a hot air mass will continue to affect the coffee-growing regions of Minas Gerais, preventing the arrival of new cold fronts from the south of Brazil.
According to climate prediction models, it is expected that the accumulated rainfall in March will be above historical averages in all coffee-growing regions. The greatest amount of rain is expected in the second half of the month.
Average rainfall in March:
Zona da Mata region: 160 mm
Southern region: 165 mm
Cerrado region: 190 mm
Mogiana region: 190 mm
Garça region: 155 mm
Rainfall forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 40 and 50 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 10 and 20 mm.
Cerrado region: between 10 and 20 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 40 and 50 mm.
Garças region: between 10 and 20 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET AND FOB
In the FOB, there are daily quotations for new crop still with a little resistance as to differentials. As for the domestic market, there was a small increase in daily over-the-counter offers.
Negotiations on a replacement basis are a little stuck due to the expectation and reality. Fast shipments are still in evidence, as well as quotations for certified coffees.
- Strictly soft good cup running screen close to R$ 1.150,00
- Strictly soft fine cup running screen close to R$ 1.180,00
- Rio Minas:
Running screen with 30% low grades close to R$ 980,00;
17/18 around R$ 1.100,00
14/16 around R$ 1.070,00 - 600 defects close to R$ 1.000,00;
LOGISTICS
According to the news website A Tribuna, during the Intermodal South America 2023 event, which took place from February 28th to March 2nd in São Paulo, Brasil Terminal Portuário (BTP) announced its plans to invest R$ 2 billion in its facilities at the port of Santos over the next few years. The goal is to expand its operational capacity by 40%. Starting in April, a private 5G network will be implemented.
As mentioned before, according to the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), with an average increase of coffee prices at retail points by 35.4% in the country in 2022, coffee consumption has decreased to 1.01% for 21.3 million bags. The coffee market in Brazil has not seen a consumption decline as a consequence of the economic context since 2013.
Ships with departures in the next 6 weeks still do not have any space restrictions for the confirmation of new bookings. There have also been no shortages of food grade equipment.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.