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Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – January 02nd ~ 06th 2023

by Jan 6, 2023Market report0 comments

KCNY and Currency

The coffee market in New York declined in the first week of the year, along with commodities in general around the world. 

Inflation in the global market is being closely monitored by traders, as employment data in the US showed that demand for labor remains stable despite rising interest rates, leaving room for potential future increases. 

Production data from Colombia shows a 12% drop in production in 2022 due to excessive rain. In Brazil, the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023 have been marked by frequent, abundant rain in production areas. 

MARCH/23: Min: 157,15 | Max: 171,15 | Last: 160,50 
BRL/USD:  Min: 5,2700 | Max: 5,4787 | Last: 5,2780 
*Data as of completion of this report.  

WEATHER  

The rainy weather that arrived in coffee-growing regions throughout Brazil at the beginning of January is expected to continue until Tuesday, January 10, as a cold front remains partially stationary in the state of Minas Gerais.  

The South Atlantic Convergence Zone is also expected to bring increased rainfall to the southern parts of Minas Gerais, as well as to the Cerrado and Zona da Mata regions. According to the climate forecast for January, overall precipitation in all coffee-growing regions should be slightly above the average for this time of year. 

Rain forecast for the week: 

South Minas region: between 70 and 80 mm. 

Zona da Mata region: between 70 and 80 mm. 

Cerrado region: between 70 and 80 mm. 

Alta Mogiana region: between 60 and 70 mm. 

Garça region: between 40 and 50 mm. 

DOMESTIC MARKET AND FOB  

The year is starting off slowly, as expected. There have been a few offers on the counter, but there has been some market sounding for quick shipments on FOB. There is little liquidity due to high replacement prices. 

  • Strictly soft good cup running screen close to R$ 1.020,00 
  • Strictly soft fine cup running screen close to R$ 1080,00 
  • Rio Minas : 

Running screen with 30% low grades close to R$ 930,00;  
17/18 around R$ 1.050,00 
14/16 around R$ 1.000,00. 

  • 600 defects close to R$ 950,00; 
    *Seller bases, with few reported deals 

LOGISTICS  

There was no decline in new reservations due to lack of space for ships departing in January and early February to the main ports in the US and Europe. There were no cancellations or postponements of shipments due to a lack of food-grade containers. 

Atlantica Coffee Team