KCNY and Currency
- Conab has published its estimate for the 23/24 crop year in Brazil, indicating a total of 54.9 million bags – 37.4 million bags of Arabica and 17.5 million bags of Conillon. According to the report, the Brazilian planting area increased by 0.8%.
- Volcafé also published this week its crop estimate, which estimates 62.9 million bags – 40.5 million for Arabica and 22.4 million for Conillon.
- Cecafé published its 2022 export report: with a 3.1% decrease compared to 2021, Brazil exported a total of 39,550,256 bags. Arabica coffee exports this year reached 34,076,000 million bags, while the volume of Robusta coffee exported was 60% lower, about 1.5 million bags. The decrease in the volume of exported conilon shows the increase in its consumption in the domestic market.
- The United States remains the main destination for Brazilian coffee, with 7.9 million bags exported to the country, followed by Germany, Italy, Belgium, and Japan.
- The stock of NY “ICE” certificates closed last Thursday at 859,564 60kg bags.
MARCH/23: Min: 148,50 | Max: 157,55 | Last: 154,80
BRL/USD: Min: 5,0665 | Max: 5,2557 | Last: 5,1970
*Data as of completion of this report.
The cold front that arrived this week should remain partially stationary on the coast of the Southeast region, causing clouds and rain throughout the week in the coffee areas of Cerrado, South of Minas and Zona da Mata. There is a risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon in the Zona da Mata. In addition, a new cold front is forecasted to arrive on the coast of Sao Paulo on January 24 (Tuesday) and may cause rain in the Mogiana and Garças coffee growing regions.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 90 and 100 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 50 and 70 mm.
Cerrado region: between 60 and 80 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 50 and 70 mm.
Garça region: between 30 and 40 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The scenario remains the same as last week, but the differentials narrow every day. The ideas of buyer versus seller are still very distant. There were demands for prompt shipments and also for certificates, while the offers at the counter are still expensive and don’t reach the expected volume. Expectation and reality are still not aligned.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 980,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.000,00
Running screen with 30% low grades close to R$ 870,00;
17/18 around R$ 1.050,00
14/16 around R$ 1.010,00.
600 defects: close to R$ 930,00;
*Seller bases, with few reported deals
The freight market for spot contracting still presents better rates in relation to the longer-term contracts negotiated previously.
Vessels with departures at the end of January and in February still have availability. Therefore, new bookings were not rejected due to allocation restrictions.
There was no need to cancel or postpone packing due to lack of food grade containers.
Atlantica Coffee Team