Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – January 30th ~ February 03rd 2023 - Atlantica
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Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – January 30th ~ February 03rd 2023

by Feb 3, 2023Market report0 comments

KCNY and Currency

NY in a week of strong recovery, reaching levels previously seen in October/22. The numbers for the crop 23/24 are beginning to be released by companies and government agencies, and there is still a big difference among players about the number to be harvested. 

In addition, it was an important week in the global fiscal scenario, on Wednesday we saw the decisions of several central banks regarding the basic interest rate. American inflation figures were released showing an improvement in the scenario. The American Central Bank increased the rate by 0.25 basis points, in line with market expectations, but, in a speech, the president of the entity mentioned the improvement in the scenario and adopted a softer tone, which cheered up the markets. 

  • In Brazil, Copom’s decision was to maintain the basic rate at 13.75%. The Real, against the Dollar, reached R$4.9410 on Thursday, but returned the appreciation after statements from the President of the Republic questioning the independence of the Central Bank and ended up closing at R$5.0460;
  • Rabobank reduced expectations of a world production/consumption surplus from 4 million bags to 1.5 million bags, mentioning a reduction in Brazilian production for the 23/24 crop;
  • Certificates on NY “ICE” continue to rise, but at a slower pace and with very low approval rates for those pending.   
  • The certified stock on NY “ICE” closed Wednesday at 872,853 60 kg bags;

MARCH/23: Min: 167,05 | Max: 184,20 | Last: 175,60 
BRL/USD: Min: 4,9410 | Max: 5,1408 | Last: 5,0850 

*Data as of completion of this report.  


A new cold front arriving in the Southeast region of Brazil during the next week is expected to organize heavy rains in some coffee regions. The highest rainfall volumes are expected in the South Minas, Zona da Mata and Cerrado regions.  

Rainfall in February in the coffee regions should be around the historical average for this month, which are:  

Zona da Mata: 111 mm;   
Sul de Minas: 166 mm   
Cerrado: 193 mm;   
Mogiana: 212 mm;  
Garças: 199 mm; 

Rain forecast for the week: 

South Minas region: between 80 and 100 mm. 

Zona da Mata region: between 80 and 100 mm. 

Cerrado region: between 80 and 100 mm. 

Alta Mogiana region: between 50 and 60 mm. 

Garça region: between 30 and 40 mm. 


This week, we experienced a bullish NY Ice that hampered business in the FOB but gave the opportunity for liquidity in the domestic market.  With this high, in the domestic market, buyers positioned themselves and sellers offered coffee. The quantity traded was lower than expected due to the high prices asked for. 

Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.100,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.150,00
Rio Minas: 
Running screen with 30% low grades close to R$ 950,00;
17/18 around R$ 1.050,00
14/16 around R$ 1.030,00.
600 defects: close to R$ 980,00;


ANTAQ authorized Portos Rio Autoridade Portuária to readjust the tariffs of the Port of Rio de Janeiro, unchanged since 2016. The average readjustment index will be 29.07% (and average tariff effect of 12.33%). As the amount collected is used for the improvement of the port, efficiency gains are expected.  

According to the portal A Tribuna, more than 80% of the total coffee exported in 2022 in Brazil was shipped through the Port of Santos, representing a 1.1% growth compared to the previous year. The port is considered the main port of departure for the commodity and had revenues of US$ 7.532 billion in 2022 from coffee exports.   There was no cancellation or postponement of stuffing due to lack of food-grade equipment, as well as no significant refusal of new bookings for departure in the second half of February or early March.

Atlantica Coffee Team


This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.