KCNY and Currency
The week was one of high volatility for NY “ICE” and for the currency. The Real continued its devaluation trend and investors show aversion to risk in face of fiscal uncertainties, the inflation context and risk of global recession.
• According to Bloomberg, the Colombian Federation reported a 10% drop in production for June/22 when compared to the same period last year. Colombia’s crop is expected to fall in the sum of this year’ s crop due to adverse weather conditions that are compromising production;
• According to May’s report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), world coffee exports totaled 10.8 million 60kg bags, an increase of 10% compared to the same period in 2021;
• Hedgepoint Global Markets has lowered its projection for the 22/23 coffee crop in Colombia, Honduras, and Vietnam with a reduction mainly caused by higher input prices. For Colombia it estimated 13.2 million 60kg bags against 13.6 million previously, in Vietnam 31.7 million against 31.9 million previously and in Honduras 6.3 million against 6.7 million previously;
• NY “ICE” certified stocks closed Thursday at 805,077 60-kg bags;
• According to the Safras & Mercados consultancy 48% of the 22/23 brazilian crop had been harvested by July 5;
SEPTEMBER/22: Min: 218,10 | Max: 225,90 | Last: 220,70
BRL/USD: Min: 5,2886 | Max: 5,4617 | Last: 5,3010
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The next week will be marked by the presence of the Tropical Maritime air mass, which acts between Brazil and Africa throughout the year, but gains strength in the continent during the winter.
This air mass brings a lot of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean to the continent and leaves the weather partially cloudy in the coffee growing regions in South Minas and Zona da Mata.
As it moves away from the ocean, the air becomes drier and the sun predominates throughout the day, with large daily temperature ranges. This air mass also blocks the arrival of new cold fronts and polar air masses. Therefore, stable weather can be expected for the next few days.
No rain is forecast for the week.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The FOB market is completely still. The local market reported some business but is still below what is expected for the period of the year.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$1.290,00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.370,00;
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.230,00
14/16: R$ 1.190,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.150,00;
600 defects: buyer close to R$ 1.250,00.
LOGISTICS
The logistics scenario remains unchanged with Customs and the Ministry of Agriculture working on a reduced scale due to the strike. There is a great difficulty in the removal of containers. Bookings and ship rollovers are occurring with some frequency and there is moderate difficulty in confirming bookings, depending on the destination and shipowner.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +179.343.240 (89.60% of the population able to take the vaccine / 83.48% of the total population)
Fully vaccinated people: +167.981.076
Cases: + 32.761.045 million
Deaths: 673.126 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com