KCNY and Currency
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange worked most of the week above 160 cents per pound, however, on Friday (28), they broke this number and ended the week quoted at 157.90 in the most liquid maturity, September/23. The total amplitude of the week was between 157.35 and 165.45 cents per pound, totaling a volatility of 810 points. The weather continues to be a favorable factor for the fall of quotations, since it is positive for the harvest progress.
In the exchange rate, quotations continue to have little oscillation, in which internal and macroeconomic factors contribute to this. Data released this week indicate that US GDP grew more than expected in the second quarter of 2023, raising fears that the FED will continue its contractionary cycle in interest rates, while Brazil continues to receive foreign investments from the country, strengthening the real.
NY ICE certified coffee stocks closed Thursday (27) at 532,523 60kg bags. Now there are only 275 bags pending approval. A year ago, stocks were above 700,000 bags.
SEPTEMBER/23: Min: 157.35 | Max: 165.45 | Last: 157.90
BRL/USD: Min: 4.6924 | Max: 4.7827 | Last: 4.7290
*Data as of the completion of this report.
WEATHER
The cold front passing the coast of the Southeast region over the weekend is expected to cause increased cloudiness and light rainfall in the Zona da Mata, northern Espírito Santo and southern Bahia regions. The polar air mass that is coming with the frontal system will move into the Atlantic Ocean.
Meteorological models show that there is no forecast for the arrival of polar air masses in the Southeast region in August.
Rainfall forecast for the week
Zona da Mata: Chances of light rainfall on the weekend. Rainfall between 10 and 15 mm.
There is no forecast of rainfall for the other coffee growing regions.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
Despite the evolution of the 23/24 harvest and the increase in offers of new coffee in the domestic market, few deals are happening. This is because the selling end has little appetite to sell on current bases, so business appears as needed. At the buying end, the bases remain following the movements of NY ICE and dollar quotations. On FOB, although the volume traded is below expectations for the period, some business has been reported in group 1 coffees and in Rio Minas demand remains high, with buyers looking for coffees in the short term.
The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 800,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 840,00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 730,00
600 defects: close to R$ 700,00;
LOGISTICS
According to the news portal Informativo dos Portos, the UN Global Compact in Brazil has launched the Ocean Business Working Group, the first corporate hub in the country, with the aim of driving the energy transition of ports and maritime transportation in partnership with the Port of Açu. The initiative aims to map decarbonization scenarios in the maritime and port sectors and address opportunities and challenges for Brazil.
Ships destined for major ports in North America, Europe, Asia and some ports in South America are already restricted in departures until mid-August. We alert you to the need to send shipping instructions in advance.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.