KCNY and Currency
The week was busy due to the expiration of the July/22 contract at NY “ICE”, with the first physical delivery day (1st notice day) last Wednesday. The dollar was moved by the American inflation and by the speeches of the president of the FED and of the American senate.
• According to Citigroup data, released over the week, a surplus of 3.2 million 60-kg bags is estimated for the 22/23 harvest;
• According to Stonex, in a report released this week, a world crop of 175 million 60-kg bags is forecast for 22/23. Regarding the global consumption, it is expected to rise 1.8 million bags, resulting in 167 million bags, with the largest increases in the European Union, United States, Japan and Brazil;
• According to the Safras & Mercados consultancy, the Brazilian coffee harvest has reached 35% by June 21 and is still behind schedule compared to the same period last year due to labor difficulties, especially in the Zona da Mata and in Espírito Santo;
• In view of recent studies published on glyphosate, according to Valor Econômico newspaper, Bayer has requested the termination of thousands of lawsuits in the United States that associate the herbicide with the development of cancer, but the U.S. Supreme Court has rejected the request;
• According to Reuters news from the previous week, international coffee traders have been taking coffee from the NY “ICE” Certified Stocks stored in Europe to the United States, which may contribute to the increase in the NY “ICE” quotations;
• NY “ICE” certified stocks closed Thursday at 969,421 60 kg bags;
JULY/22: Min: 223,80 | Max: 237,10 | Last: 225,95
BRL/USD: Min: 5,2050 | Max: 5,2472 | Last: 5,2710
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The winter season began on June 21st and it ends on September 22nd. The La Niña phenomenon continues to act during the winter, which should favor the passage of four cold fronts accompanied by polar air masses.
The first cold front is already expected for this weekend, and the forecast is for mild temperatures next week in all coffee regions. There is no frost forecast.
No rain is forecast for the week.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The local market has physical coffee available, but at high prices that make matched deals unfeasible. In the FOB, the demand is very low, and the buyer does not show interest in the short term. Few businesses were reported.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$1.350,00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.410,00;
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.250,00
14/16: R$ 1.230,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.170,00;
600 defects: buyer close to R$ 1.250,00, but virtually no demand.
LOGISTICS
According to Cecafé’s analysis, the lack of space on ships is expected to require efforts until the second half of 2023, an improvement in container availability has been noted but shipment schedules are still challenging.
The ships bound for major ports in Europe and the USA are already short of space by the end of July.
With the proximity of the peak export season for several agricultural products, shipping instructions must be sent as early as possible in an effort to ensure space allocation.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +178.911.944 (89.39 % of the population able to take the vaccine / 83.28% of the total population)
Fully vaccinated people: +167.089.895 (83.48% of the population able to take the vaccine / 77.78% of the total population)
Cases: + 31.963.736 million
Deaths: 669.958 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com