KCNY and Currency
The week was marked by the expiration of options on July/22 (N2) NY “ICE” and the US inflation data from Friday gave movement to the market.
• According to Cecafé (Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council), in May/22 the volume of Brazilian coffee exports increased by 5.1% in relation to May/21, reflecting a slight improvement in logistic conditions. The exports of May/22 totaled 2.806 million 60kg bags;
• Also according to Cecafé, the cumulative exports volume for the crop year 21/22, between July/21 and May/22, totaled 36.288 million 60kg bags, 14.8% lower than the 42.597 million 60kg bags between July/20 and May/21;
• In the face of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has been going on for more than 100 days, Russia drops from 6th to 13th place as a destination for Brazilian coffee exports;
• According to the Safras & Mercados consultancy, the Brazilian coffee harvest reached 24% by June 7, compared to 27% in the same period last year;
• Also according to the consulting company, the main reason for the delay of the harvest, compared to the historical average, would be the shortage of labor that hinders the flow of the harvest. On the other hand, the dry weather has favored work, dry coffee and quality;
• The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) projects an 11% increase for the 2022/23 Brazilian coffee crop, totaling 64.3 million 60kg bags;
• NY “ICE” certified stocks closed Thursday at 1,020,880 60-kg bags;
JULY/22: Min: 227,80 | Max: 240,45 | Last: 228,85
BRL/USD: Min: 4,8851 | Max: 5,0130 | Last: 5,0000
*Data as of the completion of this report
With the drop in atmospheric pressure on the coast of the Southeast of Brazil, the cold front that was in the region gains intensity and should cause light rain in some coffee regions between Friday and Sunday. These are light rains.
The polar air mass that comes after the frontal system will arrive in the Southeast region this weekend, but it arrives with weak intensity and should only cause a slight drop in temperatures. There is no frost forecast in the coffee regions, only an increase in cloudiness.
Rain forecast for next week:
Southern Minas region: between 5 and 10 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 5 and 10 mm.
Cerrado region: no rain forecast.
Alta Mogiana region: between 5 and 10 mm.
Garça region: between 5 and 10 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The local market shows a little more offer, especially in Matas de Minas, with varied crop lots available such as 20/21, 21/22 and new crop. In Fob, the buyer continues to seek updates in prices, but without major movements. Some deals were reported mainly for good cup.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller new crop close to R$1.280,00 and current crop close to R$1.260.00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.310,00;
17/18: R$ 1.240,00
14/16: R$ 1.190,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.130,00;
600 defects: buyer close to R$ 1.160,00, but virtually no demand.
The Port of Rio de Janeiro continues to suffer from omissions and lower departures frequency, especially for services to the Americas, as a result of operational restrictions in North American ports.
The ships destined for ports in Europe and Asia also have low availability for departures in June and the first weeks of July.
We reiterate the need to conclude negotiations and/or renew freight for the 3rd trimester of 2022.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +178.578.775
(89.22 % of the population able to take the vaccine / 83.13% of the total population)
Fully vaccinated people: +166.344.538
(83.11% of the population able to take the vaccine / 77.43% of the total population)
Cases: + 31.360.157 million
Deaths: 667.849 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
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