KCNY and Currency
The tensions between Russia and Ukraine are still causing risk aversion among investors, at the same time as doubts are raised about the impact on coffee demand.
However, there is a possibility that coffee may enter the Ukraine’s list of basic necessities, which could ease the entry and marketing of the product in the country.
• According to the February/22 ICO report, the production for the 2021/22 crop year was estimated at 167.17 million bags and the consumption figure at 170.298 million 60kg bags. Presenting a global deficit of 3.1 million 60kg bags;
• At the beginning of the week the market maintained its bearish movements, showing an important recovery on Wednesday, a movement contrary to the bearish trend and the 200-day moving average;
• The GCA (Green Coffee Association) green coffee stock has fallen to 5.76 million 60 kg bags;
• NY “ICE” certified stocks closed Thursday at 1,072,292 60-kg bags;
• The consultancy Safras & Mercado released a production estimate for the 22/23 harvest of 61.10 million 60kg bags;
• The consultancy Safras & Mercado also announced that by March 14th, 28% of the 22/23 crop had already been commercialized;
• Due to the international inflationary context, several countries are increasing their interest rates, the Selic increased this Wednesday to 11.75%;
MAY/22: Min: 210,15 | Max: 223,45 | Last: 217,70
BRL/USD: Min: 5,0293 | Max: 5,1690| Last: 5,0550
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The Tropical Sea air mass (which acts throughout the year between Brazil and Africa) gained strength in this first fortnight in Minas Gerais and blocked the arrival of cold fronts.
The weather patterns show that the rains that should occur in most coffee growing regions until the end of March will only be in the form of isolated showers, typical of the time of year.
The week will be marked by high temperatures in all coffee regions.
Rain forecast for next week:
- Sul de Minas region: between 10 and 20 mm;
- Zona da Mata region: between 10 and 15 mm;
- Cerrado region: between 10 and 15 mm;
- Garça region: between 20 and 30 mm;
- Alta Mogiana region: between 10 and 20 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The local market lacks liquidity due to the instability of the NY “ICE.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.230,00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.280,00;
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.270,00
14/16: R$ 1.230,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: near to R$ 1.180,00;
600 defects: buyer near to R$ 1.210,00;
FOB market with little demand and few deals reported.
LOGISTICS
New bookings only for April departure, but still with space restrictions. USA and Europe are the most popular destinations and many ships are having their schedule changed at the last minute. We reinforce the warning about the need to conclude the second quarter freights.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +174.783.755 (81,36% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: +158.564.214 (72,81% of the population)
Cases: + 29.525.683 million
Deaths: 656.487
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com