KCNY and Currency
The week in NY was one of great volatility with important downward and upward movements. And, on the last Thursday, the market adjusted upwards by 455 points, reaffirming the positive movement of the previous day. The inflow of foreign money into Brazil remains steady, keeping the dollar rate below R$4.80 for most of the week.
• According to the CEPEA/ESALQ (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics) report of February 2022, consulted agents point out that the weather on the countryside is favorable for grain filling and maturation, which may result in a higher yield in the 2022/23 crop;
• Several analyses in the market reinforce that the fundamental factors have not changed, strengthening the bullish movements in NY ICE. And even with the reduction of the long position of the funds, which took the market down, the weather problems in Colombia, Vietnam and Brazil continue to impact the supplies and favor the retake of the positive movement.
• In the past few weeks the NY ICE certified stock has increased, on Feb 28 at 990,000 60kg bags to 1,140,064 on Mar 23, however over this week the stock has remained in a daily decline;
• NY “ICE” certified stocks closed Thursday at 1,080,116 60-kg bags;
• According to the ICO (International Coffee Organization), coffee exports between October/21 and February/22 decreased by 0.8% compared to the same period of the previous year, totaling 53.2 million 60kg bags;
MAY/22: Min: 212,50 | Max: 230,40 | Last: 230,00
BRL/USD: Min: 4,6980 | Max: 4,8189 | Last: 4,7010
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The rainfall observed in March was below the historical average in all coffee growing regions. The highest rainfall volumes were observed between the states of Minas and São Paulo, this is due to the cold fronts that arrived in the Southeast region and remained partially stationary but then dissipated.
The following list shows the relationship between the observed precipitation in March of this year and the historical average precipitation for the month. Note that the lowest percentage in relation to the historical average was in the Zona da Mata, a region that has been in the grip of the warm air mass since February 20th.
Rainfall in March-22:
Sul de Minas: Rainfall for the month: 72 mm | Average for the Month: 188 mm
Zona da Mata: Rainfall of the month: 25 mm | Average for the Month: 165 mm
Cerrado: Rainfall of the month: 132 mm | Average for the month: 200 mm
Mogiana: Rainfall of the month: 123 mm | Average for the Month: 207 mm
Graça: Rainfall of the Month: 116 mm | Average for the Month: 186 mm
The cold front that arrives this Friday between Minas Gerais and São Paulo should bring rain for the next few days in all coffee regions. The highest rainfall volumes should be observed between April 12th and 18th.
Rain forecast for next week:
- Sul de Minas region: between 10 and 15 mm;
- Zona da Mata region: between 15 and 20 mm;
- Cerrado region: between 5 and 10 mm;
- Garça region: between 5 and 10 mm;
- Alta Mogiana region: between 10 and 20 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
Local market with low liquidity. The supply of certified coffees is very low, and growers and traders are awaiting opportunities for better prices.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.230,00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.280,00;
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.230,00
14/16: R$ 1.170,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.180,00;
600 defects without buyer over the week, seller close to R$ 1.130,00 but with few business reported.
The FOB market is more active, with short-term and new crop demands, mainly for certified coffees. The prices of certified coffees are not attractive. For conventional coffee, some sellers were more aggressive.
LOGISTICS
According to Rabobank, in its quarterly report, logistical problems are expected to persist through 2022, again postponing expectations of improvements in the international flows.
The situation at North American ports, especially Oakland, remains critical due to traffic congestion and other operational restrictions. There are few confirmed bookings, only for late April. Europe and Japan also have space available for the second half of April and first week of May.
Some stuffing schedules could not be carried out during this week due to lack or delay in the release of containers.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +175.751.269 (81,81% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: +160.659.971 (74,79% of the population)
Cases: + 29.946.070 million
Deaths: 659.860
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com