KCNY and Currency
The recent variations in NY “ICE” were analyzed as technical movements, since the physical market remains without important factors that favor bullish movements. On Thursday’s trading session, the market presented a new important high of almost 1,000 points. The Brazilian real strengthened against the dollar over the week, encouraging the upward movements of the NY “ICE”.
• According to the Safras & Mercados consultancy, the harvest in Brazil is behind schedule. Approximately 13% of the production potential has been harvested, against 17% in the same period last year;
• According to Valor Econômico newspaper, economists from the FED and financial institutions predict a recession in the United States for 3 years, with high inflation and low growth. Analyses that favor the devaluation of the dollar against other currencies;
• According to the Director General of the WTO (World Trade Organization), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the current food crisis is real and it is necessary to seek solutions to it, pointing out the Russian naval blockade in the Black Sea and the impossibility of exporting 25 million tons of grain that are stuck in Ukraine;
• NY “ICE” certified stocks closed Thursday at 1,081,923 60-kg bags;
• According to Cecafe, so far in May/22, Brazil has exported 1,408,637 60-kg bags, a volume significantly lower than May/21, which closed at 2,699,671 60-kg bags;
JULY/22: Min: 211,00 | Max: 227,30 | Last: 226
BRL/USD: Min: 4,7506 | Max: 4,8639 | Last: 4,7693
*Data as of the completion of this report
The month of May was marked by the passage of a cold front, which brought rain to the coffee growing regions, and by the presence of a strong polar air mass. Light frosts occurred along the Serra da Mantiqueira.
Rainfall in May-22:
Sul de Minas: Rainfall for the month: 30 mm | Average for the Month: 60 mm
Zona da Mata: Rainfall of the month: 9 mm | Average for the Month: 40 mm
Cerrado: Rainfall of the month: 26 mm | Average for the Month: 33 mm
Mogiana: Rainfall of the month: 47 mm | Average for the Month: 57 mm
Garça: Rainfall of the month: 11 mm | Average for the Month: 60 mm
It can be observed that rainfall was close to the historical average in the Cerrado and Alta Mogiana regions. The lowest rainfall volumes were observed in the Zona da Mata and Garça. For this week there is no forecast for rain in the coffee regions and, with the weakening of the polar air mass that acted in recent days, the forecast is for rising temperatures.
Rain forecast for next week:
Sul de Minas region: No rainfall forecast;
Zona da Mata region: No rainfall forecast;
Cerrado region: No rainfall forecast;
Alta Mogiana region: No rainfall forecast;
Garça region: No rainfall forecast;
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
Local and FOB market with deals reported. High prices on differential for Arabica low grades/internal market. Strong demand for certified coffee continues. The supply is restricted and prices are not competitive.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller new crop close to R$1.200.00 and current crop close to R$1.220.00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.250.00;
17/18: R$ 1.180,00
14/16: R$ 1.140,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.080,00;
600 defects: buyer close to R$ 1.130,00 and seller close to R$ 1.180,00
Even before the beginning of June, shipping lines have already declined bookings due to lack of allocation in the following weeks of the month, mainly for US ports and some European destinations (Germany and Italy).
The federal agricultural officers (that had already been in standard operation since December) approved a strike indication, which means an intensification of the mobilization of the servers, which will possibly be reflected in longer deadlines for the performance of activities (granting of prior approval to shipment, issuance of Phytosanitary Certificates – and more).
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +178,272,688
(89.07 % of the population able to take the vaccine / 82.98% of the total population)
Fully vaccinated people: +165,639,167
(82.76 % of the population able to take the vaccine / 77.1% of the total population)
Cases: + 30,868,945 million
Deaths: 666,248 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com