KCNY and Currency
The last two weeks were very volatile in NY “ICE”, due to weather forecasts that showed frost possibilities in some producing regions. The tendency is that the market will remain volatile, since we are in autumn, that is, winter has not yet begun in Brazil. Over the week, currencies from emerging countries showed gains against the dollar.
• Last Thursday, CONAB estimated the 22/23 coffee crop in Brazil at 53.4 million 60kg bags, down from 55.7 million in January’s forecast;
• On Friday there were reports of frost on coffee regions in lowland and grassland areas, but it was of low intensity and low coverage;
• The war between Russia and Ukraine is dragging on and is keeping economies on their toes about inflation and changes in the supply of wheat, corn, fertilizers, gas, and others;
• NY “ICE” certified stocks closed Thursday at 1,108,196 60-kg bags;
• Over the week, GCA reported a positive change of 86,308 60kg bags in its stocks, bringing the total to 5,906,606 bags;
• According to the May 11 report from Safras & Mercados, 31% of the production potential of the 22/23 harvest has already been commercialized;
JULY/22: Min: 211,90 | Max: 229,35 | Last: 215,10
BRL/USD: Min: 4,8807 | Max: 5,1041 | Last: 4,8820
*Data as of the completion of this report
The polar air mass that reached the southeast region this week caused light frosts only in some towns in the South of Minas Gerais region. This is due to the fact that the polar air mass was gaining the characteristics of the tropical region and it has lost intensity when it reached the southeast region.
For the next few days, the polar air mass will remain in the southeast region, but with low intensity. The sun should predominate almost every day. There are no frosts forecasted and during the week the temperatures should rise in the afternoon and early morning.
A new cold front will arrive on the coast of São Paulo starting Thursday and could bring some light rain only in the region of Garça.
Rain forecast for next week:
Sul de Minas region: No rainfall forecast;
Zona da Mata region: No rainfall forecast;
Cerrado region: No rainfall forecast;
Alta Mogiana region: No rainfall forecast;
Garça region: between 5 and 10 mm;
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The local and FOB market has reported deals and is more active. Strong demand for certified coffee, restricted supply and uncompetitive prices.
The harvest of the new crop is already strong in the Zona da Mata and new coffees are already being delivered.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller new crop close to R$1.230.00 and current crop close to R$1.260.00;
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.290.00;
17/18: R$ 1.200,00
14/16: R$ 1.150,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.100,00;
600 defects: buyer close to R$ 1.130,00 and seller close to R$ 1.170,00
The logistical scenario continues with little availability of allocation on ships leaving in the next 6 weeks, which is the maximum timeframe used by shipowners.
Many last minute changes in the ship schedules and some omissions affected the week’s shipments. We warn about the need to renew freight rates for the third trimester of the year.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +177.837.156
Fully vaccinated people: +165.432.925
Cases: + 30.747.752 million
Deaths: 665.491 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
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