Siga e ouça no spotify! Novos episódios em português aos sábados pela manhã.
KCNY and dollar
The advance of the omicron variant around the world had a major impact on the global macroeconomic scenario and caused coffee prices to fall at the beginning of this week, although its severity is still unknown;
- In the midst of the strong downward movement of commodities, the fundamentals of coffee supply continue to support prices, given the great concern with global supply in view of expectations of crop failures in major producing countries, high input costs, problems with international maritime freight and high local and global inflation, among others;
- The price of coffee on supermarket shelves in Brazil rose 40% last month, according to ABIC. With the strong increase in prices, coffee consumption fell by 14% in the last 30 days here;
- According to Stonex, the price of fertilizer 21-00-21 went from R$1740 in November 2020 to R$4650 in November 2021;
- Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, announced that it will ship 4.8 million bags in 2021, down 20% on its estimate for the year, due to logistical problems, citing a lack of containers and high ocean freight costs.
March/22: Min: 229.25 | Max: 246.90 | Adjust: 243.35
BRL/USD: Min: 5.5760| Max: 5.6955| Last: 5.6547
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
November was a month of significant rain in almost all coffee regions. In the first days of December the precipitation conditions remained and rains were recorded around 50 mm in some areas of the Southeast regions, except in Sao Paulo, where the volumes were lower. These rains were organized by a cold front that arrived at the end of November and should remain stationary in the coming days between Minas Gerais and Bahia.
Rain forecast for next week:
Sul de Minas: 70 – 100 mm;
Zona da Mata: 100 -1530 mm;
Cerrado: 50 mm;
Garça and Alta Mogiana: No significant rains forecast.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
Market with low liquidity, with the difference between buyer and seller prices;
- According to CEPEA, the price of Arabica coffee type 6 in the domestic market increased 13% in November, closing at R$1,420.09/weight 60kg bag;
- FOB export: Few businesses and low demand;
- The price of coffee 600 defects has also increased domestically, considerably reducing business with local industries;
- With logistical crises, many warehouses have suffered delays in operational programming;
- FOB export: Few businesses and low demand.
- Bica good cup: R$ 1380 – 1420 (seller) and R$ 1350 (buyer)
- Bica fino: R$ 1500 (seller) and R$ 1470 (buyer)
- Rio #17/18: R$ 1,500 (seller) and R$ 1,450/1,460 (buyer);
- Rio #14/16: R$ 1,430/1,450 (buyer) and R$ 1,470/1,480 (seller);
- Rio Minas bica corrida: R$ 1320/1330, but very rare offers;
LOGISTICS
The crisis in the maritime-port scenario apparently worsened in November and imposed even greater difficulties for the coffee chain.
- What we saw during the last month were many daily rollovers of shipment dates, an increase in the frequency of early cargo deadlines, vessel omissions, cancellation of bookings, warehouses in high operational capacity, with difficulties in getting cargoes out for export and in scheduling new shipments. The lack of containers also continues;
- New reservations for space on ships are very restricted, with availability only for late December and early January;
- Many bookings have not been confirmed due to lack of negotiation valid for 2022 (FOB contracts). Some customers have opted to use cargo agents instead of direct contracts with the shipowner, with the intention of still getting space in 2021;
- There is great difficulty in transfer requests, because the ships for the following weeks are already closed.
Importers, please anticipate URGENTLY all shipping instructions of the contracts to be shipped!
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: 159,343,702 (74.7% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: 135,164,013 (63.36% of the population)
Cases:+22.117 million
Deaths: 615,225 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com