KCNY and Currency
Over the week, the NY “ICE” market maintained its volatility. Some technical analyses have shown an oversold market by speculators, which strengthens a technical correction in the short term, being further reinforced by concerns with the supply from other origins, such as Colombia, the largest producer of washed coffees in the world. On the other hand, fundamental analyses expect a more bearish market in view of the return of rains in the producing regions of Brazil and the new forecasts for the next week.
- As reported by Bloomberg, Vietnam’s robusta harvest is going very well, with 38% of the crop harvested, an above average number strengthened by the mild weather. However, production is expected to decrease from initial estimates;
- The USDA foreign agricultural service has lowered its forecast for Colombia’s crop due to weather reasons, with a 3.1% reduction from the initial estimate to 12.6 million 60kg bags on 22/23;
- The USDA has also down the coffee production in Brazil by 1.7 million 60kg bags against its forecast of June this year, to 62.6 million 60kg bags for the 22/23 harvest. The main cause of the lower production would be the adverse weather conditions;
- The NY “ICE” certified stock closed Wednesday at 550,749 60-kg bags;
- According to Reuters, technical analysts in Brazil reduced high expectations for the 23/24 crop, post-flowering evaluations showed lower-than-expected developments in many regions analyzed;
DECEMBER/22: Min: 154,15 | Max: 167,55 | Last: 165,10
BRL/USD: Min: 5,2786 | Max: 5,4118 | Last: 5,3570
*Data as of completion of this report.
WEATHER
The drop in atmospheric pressure on the coast of the Southeast region of Brazil should intensify the cold front that arrived last Wednesday. The South Atlantic Convergence Zone – SACZ should form and cause moderate rains in Minas Gerais, especially in the state’s north and northeast regions. The rainfall accumulated in November should be above the expected average for the month in the coffee growing regions of South Minas, Mogiana and Zona da Mata.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 50 and 60 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 100 and 120 mm.
Cerrado region: between 40 and 50 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 20 and 30 mm.
Garça region: between 10 and 20 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The market remains stuck with few occasional businesses. The expectation of buying and selling are still far apart due to the variation of NY ICE and the price of physical coffee. Coffee interest for December shipments is decreasing due to the end of the year and its celebrations. Domestic market without offers at the counter.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.000,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.040,00
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.020,00
14/16: R$ 980,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 880,00
600 defects: close to R$ 930,00;
LOGISTICS
Freight for immediate contracting (spot) is still moving downwards. Ships with departure in December already show little availability for allocation of new reserves, especially in the negotiations closed for the long term.
Food grade containers’ stock remains low, resulting again in schedule cancellations. Some reservations were canceled by the shipowner due to this restriction.
We reiterate the need to send shipping instructions in advance, with more than one choice of carrier, in order to avoid delays.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +181.988.316
Fully vaccinated people: +172.025.593
Cases: + 35.147.091
Deaths: 689.396 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team