Siga e ouça no spotify! Novos episódios em português aos sábados pela manhã.
KCNY and dollar
Short week in Brazil due to the national holiday of last Tuesday the 12th, but of much volatility in NY “ICE” that reached 215.15 at KCZ1 and that even with the great rains of October was not relieved.
- Market remains at a steady high. Oscillating between uptrend and downtrend news;
- Bullish news such as important defaults in Colombia, which bring instability on the supply and on the participation of players subject to their consequences. Also, the decrease in exports from some origins due to logistical impasses and the recent drops in ICE’s certified stocks. On the other hand, news with bearish trends as increasing exports from african countries and centrals to the United States, the increase in ICE stock of yesterday and the good volume which is still pending approval;
- Expectations about GCA numbers, which will be known later today;
- According to Cecafé’s monthly report in Sep/21, Brazil exported 3,111,905 bags of 60 kg 26.5% less in volume if compared to Sep/20, a decrease as said by Cecafe that reflects the international logistical obstacles;
- Weak real not only due to local political and economical tensions, but also as a reflection of the gloomy reality of economies around the world with perspectives of medium and slow growth, high inflation rates, energy crises, high logistical costs and fragile supply chains;
- This week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced the growth forecast for the world economy in 2021, mentioning the impact generated by the weakening of supply chains.
December/21: Min: 196,70 | Max: 215.15
BRL/USD: Min: 5,4691 | Max: 5,5730 | Last: 5,4990
*Data as of the completion of this report
- Massive and constant rains in several regions during the first 15 days of the month of October/21, bringing relief to coffee and other crops;
- Flowering spread throughout all producing regions and the next expected rains are important for the fruit set and development;
- Our technical team noted that some severely frost-hit regions are sprouting after the rains;
- Below a rainfall historical according to Atlantica Coffee’s database:
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
- Only a few deals took place at the internal market during this short week;
- Domestic market is now led by the seller with a few buyers with appetite for fine coffees, there is more interest for riados and rio minas;
- Type 6/7 strictky soft running screen at R$1250 in Matas de Minas and R$1260 to 1270 in South Minas, Mogiana and Cerrado;
- Bica Rio with 30% low grades at R$1170;
- The appetite of Rio Minas buyers on the FOB basis remains firm. But they are still reluctant to prices which are close to group 1 coffees;
- For FOB sales, it has been a week of little movement. The focus now is to ensure space on the vessels in order to fulfill the shipments of the businesses already done.
- The routes of Central and North America, which were in total colapse at the past couple of months, show some relief with the possibility of spaces for November/21;
- Our shipping agents do not have available spaces for Turkey and countries of North Africa for November/21 anymore, making it impossible to meet the recurring demands of Rio Minas;
- Logistics collapse in the main areas of the Mediterranean and Middle East with serious deadlocks in several ports around the world such as England and North of Europe;
- Most shipping companies are already sold out for the month of November.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +150.659.242 (70,63% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: +101.836.97 (47,74% of the population)
Cases: + 21.611 million
Deaths: 602.201 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
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