Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – October 17 ~ 21, 2022 - Atlantica
Ordem Mínima
+55 31 98258-7114 Av. Princesa do Sul, 1885 | B. Rezende, Varginha, MG, Brazil | ZC: 37062-447
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Market report
  4. /
  5. Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – October 17 ~...
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Market report
  4. /
  5. Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – October 17 ~...
  1. Home
  2. /
  3. Market report
  4. /
  5. Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – October 17 ~...

Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – October 17 ~ 21, 2022

by Oct 21, 2022Market report0 comments

KCNY and currency

The NY “ICE” market surprised with a very strong bearish movement during the week. Macroeconomic issues seem to drive the movement that reflects risk aversion and demonstrates the strong financial outflow of speculators, bringing down not only coffee but commodities in general.

  • The drop was also influenced by key issues such as the perception of decreased demand in importing countries, good rains, and recent blooms;
  • The GCA (Green Coffee Association) released during the week its stock as of September 30th this year, totaling 6,378,478 60 kg bags, a drop of 71,608 bags in relation to the closing of August.
  • Still on GCA inventories, the aforementioned figure represents a 5.9% increase compared to the closing of one year ago.
  • According to data from Cepea (Center of Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), released this week, Arabica coffee prices are falling in Brazil, having reached the lowest levels since August 2021. The researchers linked the declines to favorable weather in the fields, optimal flowering, global recession, and expectations of decreased demand in Europe;
  • The consultancy firm Safras e Mercados, during this week, lowered again its estimate of the 22/23 harvest from 58.2 million 60 kg bags to 57.3 million bags;
  • NY ICE certified stocks closed on Thursday at 392,727 bags of 60kgs; 

DECEMBER/22: Min: 186,20 | Max: 199,70 | Last: 190,35

BRL/USD: Min: 5,1700 | Max: 5,3029 | Last: 5,1700

*Data as of the completion of this report.


WEATHER

The cold front that formed in the last few days in the South region of Brazil is expected to gain strength over the weekend and move into the Southeast region. Heavy rains are forecast between Saturday and Sunday in the state of São Paulo and in the southern regions and the Triangle in Minas Gerais. Today it is already raining well in Varginha.

The frontal system is expected to remain partially stationary until the end of the month in Minas Gerais, and with the descent of humidity from the Amazon region, moderate to heavy rains are forecast in the coffee growing regions of the Zona da Mata and Cerrado.

Rain forecast for the week:

South of Minas region: between 30 and 50 mm.

Zona da Mata region: between 80 and 100 mm.

Cerrado region: between 60 and 80 mm.

Alta Mogiana region: between 30 and 50 mm.

Garça region: between 20 and 30 mm.


DOMESTIC MARKET AND FOB

Week with new business reported on a FOB basis and also in the domestic market even though NY “ICE” prices have dropped significantly. Busier week and of opportunities promoted by more attractive prices to buyers in fixed price and seller’s fears in the origin that the market will fall even more.

Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.050,00;

Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.100,00;

Rio Minas:

Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 850,00;

17/18: R$ 950,00

15/16: R$ 920,00;  

600 defects: the reported business were around 1.030,00;  


LOGISTICS

The lack of containers or the late release again affected previously defined schedules. Ship delays, and consequent postponement of deadlines, have also had a negative impact, especially in shipments with equipment already loaded, resulting in extra costs.

The allocation restriction on ships leaving in the next few weeks also remains, challenging the exporter to fulfill contracts. Sending shipping instructions in advance, with more than one choice of shipping line, is still an effective way to avoid delays.


COVID-19 IN BRAZIL

People who received the first dose:  +181.903.457

Fully vaccinated people:  +171.108.649

Cases: + 34.706.757

Deaths:  687.544

Atlantica Coffee Team