Siga e ouça no spotify! Novos episódios em português aos sábados pela manhã.
KCNY and DOLLAR
The market opened the week down, in correction to the previous week’s highs. However, the climatic fundamentals and a new consecutive drop in the New York certified stocks gave support to a USD2.00/lb market, with December/21 closing Friday at 204.05 USC/lb, a positive intra-week variation of 969 points.
- The high rates of international freight and shipping uncertainties are very worrisome in relation to the world coffee supply. The expectation is that the logistics scenario will only have some relief from the first quarter of next year;
- The dollar operated the week between 5.30 and 5.47, with the real depreciating against the dollar;
- The advance of the Delta variant has a negative effect on global recovery, especially in Asia, where the isolation measures are very restrictive;
- NY certified stocks were reduced by 33.7 thousand bags, totaling 2.09 million bags currently available. It is worth noting that Brazilian semi-washed stocks have also fallen, a possible indication that the industry is resorting to these stocks, given the difficulties of shipping from origin;
- Market players are closely following the resumption of rain in Brazil to define their strategies;
- After a difficult month for the economy in Brazil, there is optimism for October, with the possible return of significant rains, more positive public accounts data, but there is still a tense domestic political scenario and a concern with the external macro, especially with the Chinese crises, which may reflect on the Brazilian economy, after all, is the largest trading partner of Brazil, with direct impact on imports of fertilizers, exports of iron ore, agricultural commodities, etc;
December/21: Min: 191,95 | Max: 205,55 | Adjustment: 204,05 USC/lb
BRL/USD: Min: 5.3060| Max: 5.4763 | Last: 5.3342
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
- September ended with rainfall below historical averages and the drought conditions in Brazil are easily seen on the plants, which suffer from the long water stress of almost a year;
- Throughout the week, there was isolated rainfall in some coffee areas in the South of Minas and Matas de Minas, and surprising hail and sand storm in isolated areas in the South of Minas and Sao Paulo, helping to boost a little the rise in arabica prices;
- The return of significant rains is forecast for October. According to Somar meteorologia, in the next seven days, there may be 100 mm of rain in Caconde-SP, 78 to 80 mm in Machado and Tres Pontas, with higher volumes between October 3-4 and October 6-7;
- In the Cerrado, Zona da Mata and Espirito Santo the heavy rains should return in the second week of the month;
- The rains in the coming months are essential to replenish soil moisture in crops and provide support for the flowering of the 2022. crop;
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
- The domestic market continues with low liquidity and high prices for Arabica, being above R$1000 / bag for all qualities and screen sizes.
- Most producers, besides being capitalized, believe that the upward trend should continue, given the consecutive valuations and weather conditions seen in recent times;
- Some business of bica corrida bebida dura type 6/7 happened at R$1180 to 1200 per bag, but there were requests for R$1500;
- Low supply of Rio Minas in the Zona da Mata, with slightly higher volume in Espírito Santo. In both, the prices of bica corrida remain very high, around R$1050 to R$1060 for Rio Chuvado and R$1080 to 1100 for Rio Soft;
- In the Zona da Mata, most of the warehouses are still full due to the low availability of containers for the disposal of stocks;
- Week of few businesses in FOB export, some occasional interests for short-term coverage and new demands for the medium-long term. Meanwhile, buyers and sellers are distant in the differentials;
- Rio Minas with demand still heated but buyer reluctant to pay replacement prices and expensive international freight adjustments.
CROP
- The harvest of the 2021 crop is almost finished in most Brazilian regions, except for crops of specialties, selective harvesting and high altitude areas;
- It is a crop of good quality, lower harvested volume and favored by the absence of rain at harvest time.
LOGISTICS
- Spot freight rates are reaching historic highs, about four times more expensive than a year ago, directly affecting the cost of international coffee business. Even paying such high prices, there is no guarantee of space on the vessels;
- Preliminary data on September shipments, released by CECAFE, show that of the 2.958 million bags to be shipped from Brazil, only 2.493 million were actually shipped;
- There is a crisis in the supply of food-grade equipment around the world and most times, shipowners cannot guarantee space or confirm reservations;
- In Brazil, all the shipowners are short of container stocks. But the ones we are having more problems with are: MSC, Hapag, and CMA CGM. With the others, we can get the equipment a little more easily, but sometimes they also do not release the containers, which depends on the week’s stock, import arrivals in Brazil, etc;
- There is a lot of space restriction, ships stopped at the terminals, causing congestion at the ports;
- New bookings:
- North America: new bookings only for November departure, with a lot of space restriction.
- Japan: New bookings confirmed only for November.
- Europe: new bookings have been confirmed only for November.
- In a scenario of high demand for equipment, high competition with various sectors, and low supply, we need to reserve space on ships and containers as soon as possible to make shipments possible. Therefore, we reiterate our request to our customers to send shipping instructions, bag marks and PSS approval, and pre-shipment documents as early as possible.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
September was the month with the lowest number of Covid deaths in 2021 in Brazil.
People who received the first dose: +146 mi (68.7% of the population)
People fully vaccinated: +91 mi (42.87% of the population)
Cases: + 21.425 million
Deaths: 596,800 thousand
Happy International Coffee Day!
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”) and atlanticacoffees (plural) and prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com
The international freights are in a rhythm of successive highs, as it is already known. Therefore, temporarily, in Atlantica, the new sales are being based FOB only. We can attend clients with CFR or CIF demands, however, the businesses are confirmed FOB and after the contracted freight we pass on the values to the clients. This is a temporary measure in response to the various differences in freight prices between sale and shipment, that caused high extra costs for the exporter, even though we have made reservations and agreements with freight forwarders, who have not maintained the freight values. We are continuously working to adapt to the new reality and making our best efforts to minimize the impacts of the global logistical chaos on our customers’ operations.