KCNY and Currency
The rains this week and the forecasts for more rains as of next week, the weakening of the Brazilian real against the dollar, the decline in commodities market due to uncertainties and the decrease in global demand (which the coffee market is experiencing for a few months now) all favor bearish movements. However, coffee quotations remained firm throughout the week due to the continuous decrease of stocks in the ICE.
- On Tuesday, the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab) adjusted its harvest estimate to 50.38 million 60-kg bags, a 5.65% reduction from the previous forecast. According to Conab, climatic problems from last year are the main responsible for the impact on this year’s crop.
- In its last meeting this week, Copom (Monetary Policy Committee of Brazil) kept the Selic interest rate at 13.75%;
- Good rainfall volumes were reported in the coffee regions throughout the week and there is good expectation for rains to come;
- Last Friday, 9/16, the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) report showed a drop in the long position of non-commercial, hedge funds of 4,806 lots. Today’s long position is 23,946 lots;
- The NY “ICE” certified stock closed Thursday at 485,408 60-kg bags;
DECEMBER/22: Min: 217,25 | Max: 223,40 | Last: 218,55
BRL/USD: Min: 5,1168 | Max: 5,2450 | Last: 5,2390
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The cold front that formed in São Paulo last Tuesday brought rain to all coffee regions. Due to the drop in atmospheric pressure in São Paulo’s western region, the frontal system became more intense and put an end to the prolonged drought in the Brazilian Cerrado region.
A new cold front arrives this week in the brazilian Southeast region and should bring rain to the coffee regions of Garça, South Minas and Mogiana.
The climate forecast models show that the spring should have rains above the historical average in the Cerrado, South Minas and Zona da Mata coffee regions. November and December will be the rainiest months of the season.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 20 and 30 mm.
Zona da Mata region: chances of isolated showers, between 10 and 15 mm.
Cerrado region: no rain forecast.
Alta Mogiana region: between 25 and 35 mm.
Garça region: between 25 and 35 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The week had few businesses reported in the FOB. The domestic market also continues with little volume considering the time of the year.
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.240,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1.280,00
Rio Minas:
17/18: R$ 1.130,00
15/16: R$ 1.100,00
Running screen with 30% low grades: close to R$ 1.050,00
600 defects: reported deals close to R$ 1.180,00;
LOGISTICS
One more week of restricted space on ships departing in the next 6 / 8 weeks. USA and European ports continue with the most critical situation.
The low availability of containers also remains, affecting shipments already scheduled, including reservations confirmed under spot rate.
Sending instructions in advance and using more than one shipping company is still the best option to avoid delays.
COVID-19 IN BRAZIL
People who received the first dose: +181.011.268
Fully vaccinated people: +170.597.489
Cases: + 34.659.526 million
Deaths: 685.725 thousand
Let’s continue believing and investing in the coffee culture!
Atlantica Coffee Team
FRAUD ALERT
Fraudsters have created accounts at the domains atlanticacoffeee.com (with 3 letters “e”), atlanticacoffees (plural) and atlantlcacoffee (using the lowercase of L instead of the letter i) and for the prefixes using the names of our employees, even imitating our signatures. They are quoting coffee, issuing invoices with altered payment data, mostly to banks in Hong Kong, which we are not ours! Please be aware of the sender of the messages and always question instructions to change bank details!
Our only official e-mail domain is: atlanticacoffee.com