KCNY and Currency
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange worked between 185.65 and 198.15 cents per pound for the March/24 expiration date, a significant swing of 1,250 points over the week, demonstrating the high volatility of the coffee market. Among the reasons for such volatility in the last week of the year are concerns about the weather in the producing regions, the short-term supply of coffee and expectations for the 24/25 crop. The dollar, which weakened against the Brazilian real, also contributed to NY ICE’s fluctuations. Dollar quotes for the week were between R$4.8018 and R$4.8714.
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange worked between 185.65 and 198.15 cents per pound for the March/24 expiration date, a significant swing of 1,250 points over the week, demonstrating the high volatility of the coffee market. Among the reasons for such volatility in the last week of the year are concerns about the weather in the producing regions, the short-term supply of coffee and expectations for the 24/25 crop. The dollar, which weakened against the Brazilian real, also contributed to NY ICE’s fluctuations. Dollar quotes for the week were between R$4.8018 and R$4.8714.
On Friday (22), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a report on traders’ positions in the New York coffee market for the week ended Tuesday (19). Investment funds increased their long position to 23,804 lots, compared to a balance of 17,286 lots on the 12th. The report for the week ending on the 26th is due to be released today.
Certified stocks of coffee on the NY ICE closed Thursday (28) at 258,399 60 kg bags, when 11,458 were approved and 3,640 rejected. There are currently 9,495 bags pending approval.
MARCH/24: Min: 185.65 | Max: 198.15 | Last: 188.30
BRL/USD: Min: 4.8018 | Max: 4.8714 | Last: 4.8520
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The year 2023 was marked by four heat waves in the coffee-growing regions, with historical record temperatures and a lack of rainfall in the winter and spring months. The forecast for the last few days of 2023 and the first few months of 2024 is for the El Niño phenomenon to weaken and, consequently, for above-average rainfall in all coffee-growing regions.
The forecast for the last days of 2023 and the first months of 2024 is a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon and, consequently, above-average rainfall in all coffee-growing regions.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 80 and 90 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 100 and 150 mm.
Cerrado region: between 80 and 90 mm.
Região Alta Mogiana: entre 60 e 70 mm.
Garça region: between 30 and 40 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The week was a slow one, both on the domestic and FOB markets. Very few deals were reported, according to buyers’ needs, on the domestic market given the few offers in this last week of the year. On the FOB, there is still a need for short-term coverage on the part of buyers, so there were very few one-off deals. No significant volumes were traded during the week.
The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
- Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 980.00
- Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1,020.00
- Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 820.00
- 600 defects: close to R$ 800.00
LOGISTICS
- Some of the main shipping companies have announced additional freight rates due to the attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, which have led to the re-routing of ship routes. These surcharges are intended to compensate for the additional costs resulting from longer voyages around Africa, compared to the traditional routes through the Suez Canal. The information is from the portal Notícias Agrícolas.
In the final stretch of 2023, the ports of Rio de Janeiro and Santos once again showed low stocks of food grade containers, especially 20′ ones.
January ships for the main routes in the Americas, Europe and Asia still have no allocation restrictions, but we warn you to revalidate your service contracts with the shipping companies.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.
