KCNY AND CURRENCY
During this week, the market recorded a range of 1850 points. Concerns about global supply remain highly relevant, with the week’s low slightly below $3.20 and the high reaching 335.50 cents/lb on Thursday (19th).
In addition to worries about potential production losses, much of the attention this week was focused on U.S. monetary policy decisions, leading to speculative movements across various markets. On Wednesday (18th), the Federal Reserve cut the U.S. interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing it to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Following the week’s events, the market settled on Friday (20th) at $325.00 cents/lb, reflecting a 1.72% variation compared to last week’s adjustment.

Prices for the March/25 expiry date since 01/01/24. Source: Barchart.
In the currency market, the week was once again marked by Central Bank auctions. The difficulties in advancing negotiations on spending containment measures in Congress have heightened concerns about Brazil’s fiscal situation. Additionally, President Lula’s remarks on Fantástico highlighted an uncomfortable misalignment with the direction of monetary policy.
This week, the dollar reached its highest nominal historical exchange rate at R$6.2702. In a press conference, the Central Bank president stated that the auctions conducted over the past two weeks are not intended to set a price for the dollar but rather to ensure a certain balance in the market. Since last Thursday (12/12), dollar offerings via auctions have exceeded $27.76 billion.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a report last Friday (13th) on traders’ positions in the market for the week ending Tuesday (10th), showing an increase of 203 contracts in long positions, resulting in a total of 39,247 long contracts.
Certified stocks as of this Friday (20th) totaled 985,990 60kg bags, of which 619,302 bags are of Brazilian origin, with 38,674 bags pending approval. This volume represents an increase of 45,564 bags over the past seven days.
March/25: Min: 317.00 | Max: 335.50 | Last: 325.00
BRL/USD: Min: 6.0249 | Max: 6.2702 | Last: 6.0704
*Data up to the finalization of this report
WEATHER
Summer in Brazil will begin on December 21 at 6:20 AM and will last until March 20. With ocean temperatures above average, climate models indicate a high likelihood of rainfall exceeding historical patterns across all coffee-producing regions throughout the season.
A cold front expected to arrive in the Southeast this Saturday is forecast to remain stationary over Minas Gerais from December 22 to 25, bringing the possibility of rain across all coffee-growing areas.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 90 and 110 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 90 and 110 mm.
Cerrado region: between 70 and 80 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 30 and 40 mm.
Garça region: between 30 and 40 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET AND FOB
As the end of the year approaches, domestic market activities remain subdued. Producers show limited interest in negotiations, while buyers focus on occasional coverage. In the FOB market, due to extreme volatility in NY and price differentials, exporters are cautious, and buyers are also seeking short-term shipment offers without committing to larger positions, awaiting a better NY ICE market and more favorable differentials in the first half of 2025.
The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
- Strictly soft good cup running screen around R$ 2,300.00
- Strictly soft fine cup running screen up to R$ 2,500.00
- Rio Minas running screen around R$ 1,950.00
- 600 defects around R$ 2,200.00
LOGISTICS
- The TCU identified signs of abusive charges at ports and terminals related to container detention fees and directed Antaq to develop, by January, an action plan to make the charging methodology more transparent. (Source: Poder 360)
- Brazil faces significant challenges such as infrastructure issues, access bottlenecks, and impacts on maritime competitiveness, weakening its position in international trade. Ricardo Arten, CEO of Porto Itapoá (SC), emphasized the urgent need for investments in logistical capacity to meet growing demand. (Source: A Tribuna)

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DISCLAIMER
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.