Relatório Semanal – Mercado de café no Brasil – 7 a 11 dez. 2020 | Atlantica
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Relatório Semanal – Mercado de café no Brasil – 7 a 11 dez. 2020

por dez 11, 2020Relatório de mercado37 Comentários

KCNY e BRL/USD
Ao longo desta semana, o mercado acompanhou o clima no Brasil, câmbio e reports sobre a safra 21/22. O contrato Março-21 operou entre 116,45 e 123,55 USC/lb. O real oscilou entre 5,0136 a 5,1974 em relação ao dólar, que após 5 1/2 meses, voltou a operar na casa dos BRL/USD 5, o que deu força aos preços do café em NY.  Desde o dia 2 de novembro, o real é a moeda que mais valorizou no mundo (+13,6%).

O mercado reagiu positivamente com a notícia de que, a reforma tributária no Brasil pode ser votada semana que vem, atraindo investimentos estrangeiros e ajudando na valorização do BRL. O Copom anunciou manter a Selic a 2% ao ano, a taxa básica de juros do Brasil.

Também há preocupação com os impactos do furacão na produção de café da América Central. A aprovação das vacinas, com horizonte para 2021, até trazem sentimento otimista para o consumo de café, entretanto, os números recordes de novas infecções Covid-19 no mundo e a economia norte-americana trazem cautela.

TEMPO/CLIMA
Nos últimos 7 dias, foram registrados elevados volumes de chuva e temperaturas mais amenas em Minas Gerais, o maior produtor de arábica do Brasil, no Espírito Santo e outros locais.

As condições climáticas em dezembro vêm favorecido a recuperação das lavouras e já é possível visualizar os chumbinhos. Muito se fala em quebra da safra  21/22 acima dos 30%, podendo chegar a 40% em algumas regiões, haja vista as podas realizadas, a longa estiagem de 2020, o ano de bienalidade negativa e as condições das lavouras. Entretanto, é prudente aguardar pelos meses de janeiro e fevereiro para estimar a quebra com maior precisão.

As previsões de tempo da SOMAR Meteorologia apontam chuvas regulares para os próximos dias nas principais regiões cafeeiras.  Para os próximos 6 dias, estimam-se até 90mm no Cerrado, Sul de Minas e Zona da Mata e entre 50mm e 70mm no Paraná, São Paulo e Sul do Espírito Santo.

MERCADO DOMÉSTICO E FOB
O produtor, bem vendido e capitalizado, segue cauteloso nos negócios. Mercado calmo, girando com negócios casados. De acordo com a consultoria Safras e Mercados, 74% da produção 20/21 está vendida. No mesmo período de 2019, 71% da safra 19/20 estava comercializada. Os armazéns gerais estão cheios, mas com fluxo normal de operações.

De acordo com relatório do CECAFE divulgado nesta quarta-feira, o Brasil registrou o maior recorde para o mês de novembro nas exportações de café, o que motivou sessões de baixa na quarta-feira. A boa performance brasileira veio mesmo em um cenário de pandemia e de dificuldades logísticas internacionais.

– 4,3 milhões de sacas de 60 kg de café verde, solúvel e torrado & moído exportadas;
– 3,7 milhões de arábica verde exportadas, representando 85,1 % do total;
– Receita cambial em reais: R$ 2,9 bilhões (+ 72,5% a.a., com o suporte da forte desvalorização da moeda brasileira);
Receita cambial em dólares: USD 541.958 (+ 32,35% a.a., a maior receita para o mês nos últimos cinco anos);
– Preço médio por saca: US$ 124,90 (+0,1% a.a.).

LOGÍSTICA INTERNACIONAL NO BRASIL
Os desafios na logística internacional com a falta de contêineres e espaço em navios seguem ocorrendo. O envio antecipado de Shipping Instructions é essencial para que possamos atuar com antecedência nos bookings.

A vistoria de contêineres em Depot da CMA CGM não está sendo permitida. Essa etapa assegura que o contêiner se enquadra no padrão alimento para receber a carga e poderá ser utilizado no transporte de café de forma segura. A Atlantica tem o comprometimento, o cuidado e a responsabilidade de entregar qualidade aos clientes que adquirem nossos cafés, portanto, estamos suspendendo os embarques com este armador até que a vistoria seja autorizada novamente

COVID-19 NO BRASIL
Casos: 6,78 M
Mortes: 180 mil
Recuperados: 6,04 M

Vamos continuar acreditando e investindo na cultura do café!

Fiquem bem,
Equipe Atlantica Coffee

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