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  5. Relatório de Mercado COVID-19

Relatório de Mercado COVID-19

por jun 19, 2020Coffee, Relatório de mercado62 Comentários

Estimados Parceiros,

 

Esta semana tivemos uma onda de boas notícias mesmo às sombras das incertezas que acompanham a COVID-19. A exemplo, o BCE surpreendendo nos montantes de novos estímulos ao mercado, vários países também injetando liquidez, a criação inesperada de empregos nos Estados Unidos, o Brasil apresentando queda do risco país e novos investidores chegando.

 

O Brasil tem gerado preocupação quanto aos casos de COVID-19, cujas mortes registradas somam 34.021. O governo, por sua vez, já menciona extensão do auxílio a trabalhadores informais por mais 2 meses, mas o valor de R$ 600 está em discussão. O real se mantem em recuperação e atingiu a mínima de R$4,9360 até a finalização deste relatório.

 

Enquanto o impacto da pandemia no consumo de cafés comerciais tem sido muito discutido, nos especiais um levantamento da BSCA (Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association) mostrou queda de 76,25% nas vendas de seus associados, em que o consumo é majoritariamente fora de casa. Entretanto, eles destacam a força dos negócios online que apesar de não compensarem a queda de vendas nas cafeterias, ajudaram a pagar as contas.

 

Em nossa opinião, as vendas online, muito forte em vários seguimentos, no café também veio para ficar. Com NY em baixa e o real fortalecido, os produtores estiveram mais retraídos para novos negócios, com a queda nas bases em torno de BRL 30/40 por saca desde a última semana.

 

Estes estiveram mais focados nas antecipações das entregas dos cafés futuros. Em contrapartida, importadores voltam a falar de demandas para o curto e médio prazo e estiveram mais ávidos a novos negócios, sempre de olho nos diferenciais.

 

Na logística, ainda fazem parte do cenário para alguns destinos dificuldades de espaço e reduções de rota devido a blank sailings no transporte marítimo. Também há algumas dificuldades em conseguir cotação de frete com as companhias marítimas para períodos superiores a 1 ou 2 meses.

 

As temperaturas ao longo desta semana estiveram mais amenas do que as registradas nas últimas semanas. A nova safra do Brasil continua sendo colhida a todo vapor. Alguns produtores das Matas de Minas relataram dificuldades em encontrar mão-de-obra para a colheita da safra nova, mas sem nenhuma relação à casos de Covid-19. São apenas relatos isolados de alguns produtores parceiros e não uma situação geral.

 

A safra nova já está sendo comercializada há algumas semanas. Apesar de os lotes ainda apresentarem catação elevada, o que é normal para o período, qualitativamente os cafés têm se saído muito bem para início de safra. O percentual de graúdo é muito bom, mas não surpreendente.

 

Vamos aguardar a conclusão da colheita das regiões mais altas para validar essa percepção. Vamos continuar acreditando e investindo na cultura do café para que possamos seguir em frente!

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