KCNY and Currency
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange remain volatile. For the September/24 expiration date, the low was 225.25 and the high 235.40, ending the week slightly higher at 230.50, totaling 1015 points of weekly fluctuation. Climate uncertainties and reduced global supply are factors supporting prices. Vietnam, as the largest producer of Robusta, has played a leading role in the rise of both Arabica and Robusta coffee prices, as NY has followed London.
Prices for the September/24 expiry date since 01/01/24. Source: Barchart.
On the foreign exchange front, the dollar opened Monday at a high level, but lost strength over the course of the week, being quoted at between R$5.4913 and R$5.8547. In the macroeconomic scenario, the interest rate cuts projected for the US economy should help strengthen the real given the high Selic rate, bringing foreign currency flows into the country.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released this Friday (09) a report on the position of Traders in the market for the week ended Tuesday (06), who reduced their net long balance for the fourth week in a row by 1,689 lots, showing a long balance of 39,881 lots, compared to the previous balance of 41,570 lots on 30/07.
Certified stocks ended this Friday (09) totaling 828,509 60 kg bags, with 49,883 bags pending approval. A year ago, stocks totaled 525,917 bags, representing an increase of 302,592 bags over the period.
SEPTEMBER/24: Min: 225.25 | Max: 235.40| Last: 230.50
BRL/USD: Min: 5.6079| Max: 5.7931| Last: 5.7092
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
The cold front that has passed along the coast of the southeastern region in recent days has organized isolated showers in some municipalities in the south of Minas Gerais and the Zona da Mata. For the next few days, the maritime circulation should leave the weather cloudy with a chance of showers in the south of Bahia and the north of Espírito Santo. There is also a chance of showers along the Serra do Caparaó.
A new cold front is expected to pass along the coast of the Southeast between August 9 and 10. The air temperature is not expected to drop.
Rain forecast for the week:
Southern Minas region: no rain forecast.
Zona da Mata region: between 5 and 10 mm.
Cerrado region: No rain forecast
Alta Mogiana region: no rain forecast.
Garça region: no rain forecast.
DOMESTIC MARKET AND FOB
Prices on the domestic market remain firm, with sellers not having much enthusiasm for selling, against a backdrop of a devaluing NY and a strengthening dollar. According to various research sources, the crop is believed to be between 84 and 88% harvested, more advanced than in the same period last year. For conilons, it’s practically finished. On the FOB market, the week was quiet, with no major demand, and the differentials between 17/18 and MTGB continued to be quoted with differences of around 10 cents per pound. There were a few businesses for Rio Minas in the short term shipment, given the better flatprices for buyers.
The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
- Strictly soft good cup running screen around R$1,410.00;
- Strictly soft fine cup running screen around R$1,450.00;
- Rio Minas around R$1,160.00;
- 600 defects was quoted at R$ 1,280.00
LOGISTICS
For one more week, export schedules have been negatively impacted by the shortage of food standard equipment, mainly 20′. Ships scheduled to depart in the next 4 to 6 weeks are almost unavailable for new bookings. Routes to the main ports in North America and Europe are the most compromised by the lack of allocation
