KCNY AND CURRENCY
The Arabica coffee futures market on NY ICE closed October with a depreciation; during the month, prices dropped by 18.25 cents, from 264.15 to 245.90 for the December 2024 contract (Z4). On Monday, the market traded higher, but it shifted to a bearish trend through the week, mainly pressured by favorable rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions. The lowest price was recorded this Friday (Nov 1) at 241.30, and the highest was 255.65 cents per pound for the December 2024 contract, which remains the most liquid but with lower volume due to the Z4H5 rollovers that are beginning to intensify. Thus, prices ended the week down at 242.95. London prices also showed depreciation throughout October, with the January 2025 contract down by USD 856 per ton over the period.
Prices for the December/24 expiry date since 01/01/24. Source: Barchart.
Brazil’s coffee shipments may set record numbers in October 2024. According to Cecafé’s website, over 5 million bags received origin certification by October 31, with 4.4 million bags confirmed for export. Official figures will be released in the coming days, and it’s possible that October’s coffee exports will exceed the same period in 2023, which totaled 4,416,224 bags.
In currency markets, the USD/BRL ranged between R$5.6958 and R$5.8750, its highest since March 2021. The week saw high volatility with PTAX price formation and a busy data release schedule alongside expectations for the upcoming U.S. elections on Tuesday (Nov 5). Concerns over potential economic policies of the election winner strengthened the dollar against the real. Interest rate outlooks are also under watch, with anticipated rate cuts of 0.25% following a U.S. job market slowdown.
Domestically, fiscal uncertainties continue to affect market sentiment. It had previously been signaled that, after the second round of the municipal elections, measures to contain spending would be discussed with the president of the republic. However, Minister Fernando Haddad said this week that the new measures do not have a deadline. The lack of concrete information on how to contain the primary deficit has had an impact on the devaluation of the real.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported on Friday (Nov 1) that traders reduced their net long positions by 667 contracts for the week ending Tuesday (Oct 29), bringing total long positions to 38,064 contracts.
Certified stock closed Friday (Nov 1) at 856,423 60-kg bags, with 96,282 bags pending approval. This reflects a year-over-year increase of 476,390 bags, up from 380,033 bags a year ago.
December/24: Min: 241.30 | Max: 255.65 | Last: 242.95
BRL/USD: Min: 5.6958 | Max: 5.8750 | Last: 5.8719
*Data up to the completion of this report
WEATHER
The cold front that arrived in the Southeast region on October 25 brought rain to all coffee-growing areas. This was the third cold front to pass through the Southeast in October. Climate models indicate that November rainfall is expected to be above the historical average in coffee regions.
The weather forecast for the coming days shows warm air moving from the continent toward the Atlantic Ocean, organizing clusters of rain clouds over the Cerrado, South Minas, Mogiana, and Garça regions. Isolated showers typical for this time of year are also possible in Zona da Mata.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 20 and 30 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 10 and 20 mm.
Cerrado region: between 30 and 50 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 20 and 30 mm.
Garça region: between 20 and 30 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET AND FOB
The domestic physical market is stalled, with few trades reported and a limited number of sellers, as they are well-capitalized. Buyers enter the market as needed, and price bases remain distant. In the FOB market, pricing is diverse, with some sellers aggressive in their pricing and others cautious, awaiting key decisions such as the EUDR postponement. Although there is demand for November and December shipments, few exporters are able to offer for these months, depending on quality, due to logistical and storage challenges and the year-end period. For the Rio Minas market, offers vary widely among players, creating a significant gap between exporters.
The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
- Strictly soft good cup running screen around R$ 1,500.00
- Strictly soft fine cup running screen around R$ 1,580.00
- Rio Minas running screen around R$ 1,240.00
- 600 defects was quoted at R$ 1,380.00
LOGISTICS
For another week, there was minimal impact from container shortages or delayed releases in scheduling, though carriers and depots continue to report low stocks of food-grade 20′ and 40′ HC containers. They also highlighted challenges in inspections and repairs due to high demand and limited import returns, relying on other sources to meet scheduling needs.
Vessel scheduling changes remain a constant issue. Terminal yards are full, and early gate opening requests for advance receipt are rarely accepted. Space on vessels departing in the next 4 to 6 weeks is already scarce.
- According to Brasil Agro, a Centronave study reveals that only 47% of new mega vessel capacity is supported by Brazilian terminals due to draft and berth limitations, necessitating structural upgrades to keep pace with the market.
- As reported by Poder 360, geopolitical tensions and climatic factors are causing delays at Brazilian ports, leading to additional costs and capacity loss. At the Port of Santos, 84% of vessels experienced delays in September, with a median wait time of 12 days.