KCNY and Currency
In the third week of July, coffee prices on the stock exchange had a range of 1,465 points with a high of 248.25c/lb recorded on Monday (15) and a low of 233.60c/lb observed on Friday (19). Even though it was a volatile week, the weekly oscillation was much calmer than the previous week, which recorded an incredible 2,550 points.
On Thursday (18), consultancy firm Safras & Mercado revised downwards its estimate of Brazil’s coffee crop, reducing it to 66.04 million bags. This represents a decrease of around 6% in relation to the previous estimate of 70.37 million bags. According to them, the dry weather and high temperatures at the end of 2023 damaged the productivity of coffee crops. On Tuesday (16) RaboBank also reduced its forecast for the Brazilian crop, updating it to 67.1 million bags.
With concerns about supply from Vietnam, revisions to the Brazilian crop and the boost to Brazilian exports due to a strong dollar, coffee closed another week above the 230c/lb range, settling at 238.20c/lb for its most liquid September/24 expiry.

Prices for the September/24 maturity since 01/01/24. Source: Barchart.
In terms of the exchange rate, the performance was unstable, with the weekly domestic focus on the Brazilian government’s fiscal commitments. On Tuesday, President Lula’s statements to Record (a Brazilian broadcaster) raised even more doubts about the fiscal commitment and the promised cuts in spending. So on Thursday (18), a budget cut of R$15 billion was announced in order to meet the requirements of the fiscal framework, while next week’s radar will be on the publication of the government’s RARDP (Primary Revenue and Expenditure Assessment Report), which will be published on 22/07.
Powell, president of the US Central Bank, commented that the latest inflation readings showed progress, further increasing assumptions that there will soon be an interest rate cut.
The weekly positioning of traders, published by the CFTC on the 12th, was a reversal of last week’s comparison. This was represented by an increase in the long balance of speculative funds by 6,081 lots, ending the week with a balance of 50,902 compared to 44,821 the previous week (05), an increase of approximately 14%.
Certified stocks increased by 1.6% compared to last week’s total, ending Friday (19/07) at 818,230 bags, with 50% of this volume being of Brazilian origin. Pending imports stood at 19,298 bags.
SEPTEMBER/24: Min: 233.60 | Max: 248.25 | Last: 238.20
BRL/USD: Min: 5.4048 | Max: 5.6009 | Last: 5.5988
*Data as of the completion of this report
WEATHER
WEATHER
The next few days should be marked by the presence of a dry continental air mass, with sunny weather and low relative humidity in all coffee-growing regions.
According to the American Meteorological Center, the second half of the year should be marked by the presence of the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to be weak. Therefore, the effect of global warming should leave temperatures slightly above the historical average in all months.
No rain is forecast for next week.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
With the fluctuations in NY during the week, negotiations and offers on the domestic market have slowed down. Prices on the selling end are much higher than on the buying end, making business unfeasible.
On the FOB market, prices are unattractive to buyers. There is practically no demand for long position contracts, but there is demand for coffees for immediate shipment.
The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen around R$ 1,380.00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen around R$ 1,450.00
Rio Minas: running screen with 30% low grades around R$ 1,230.00
600 defects around R$ 1,250.00
LOGISTICS
Ships bound for the main ports in North America and Europe already have limited availability for new bookings on ships leaving in the next 6 weeks. There have been no cancellations due to a lack of or delay in the release of containers.
- The container shipping market is at its peak, with importers reacting to high spot rates. On July 15, spot rates from the Far East to the US East Coast rose 3.7% to US$10,045 per FEU, and to the West Coast, they rose 2.0% to US$8,045 per FEU. Since the end of April, these rates have increased by almost 150%. The information is from the Portos e Navios portal.
- The impasse in labor negotiations between regulatory agency inspectors and the Federal Government is already causing delays in cargo clearance at the Port of Santos, generating concern about a possible strike by the category, according to the A Tribuna portal.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.