Relatório Semanal Mercado de café no Brasil – 30 de agosto a 03 de setembro de 2021 | Atlantica
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Relatório Semanal Mercado de café no Brasil – 30 de agosto a 03 de setembro de 2021

por set 3, 2021Relatório de mercado11 Comentários

Siga e ouça no spotify! Novos episódios aos sábados pela manhã.

KCNY e câmbio
Em mais uma semana de alta, o contrato arábica dezembro/21 operou o período próximo a barreira psicológica de USC 2,00/lb, mas quedas técnicas levaram o ajuste da semana para 193 USC/lb.

  • O problema da seca no Brasil que parece se prolongar e as geadas severas de julho representam grande risco para a safra de 2022, dando forte suporte aos preços;
  • Dados de exportações da OIC divulgados na quarta-feira apontaram aumento de 1,3% nas exportações globais, pressionando as cotações;
  • O real, mais valorizado esta semana, operou entre 5,11 e 5,22 por dólar, dando suporte às cotações de café;
  • Há feriado da independência no dia 7 de setembro no Brasil. Em algumas empresas, há recesso na segunda (06), incluindo a Atlantica.
  • Dezembro/21: Min: 191,15 | Max: 201,55 | Last: 193 USC/lb
  • BRL/USD: Mín: 5,1165| Máx: 5.226 | Last: 5.1800
  • *Dados até a finalização deste relatório 

CLIMA

  • Segundo a Aneel (agência nacional de energia elétrica), o Brasil está passando pela pior seca dos últimos 91 anos. A escassez hídrica está refletindo negativamente nas lavouras, sobretaxas na energia elétrica e aumento da inflação no Brasil;
  • As previsões são de tempo seco e temperaturas acima de 35ºC entre 03 e 07 de setembro no Sul de Minas, Cerrado e Mogiana;
  • As condições de tempo seco, baixa umidade e calor além de preocupantes para as floradas, também estão favorecendo incêndios em cafezais;
  • Em áreas que sofreram geadas planeja-se:
    • Na maioria das áreas atingidas recepar as plantas, com retorno de produção significativa em 2024/2025;
    • Erradicar as lavouras velhas e aguardar para replantar em outro momento, pois muitos viveiros de mudas foram atingidos e o custo de implantação de lavoura de café está elevado;
    • ou substituir as lavouras erradicadas por culturas anuais;
  • Há tendência de outubro mais úmido, importante para as floradas e recuperação das plantas.

MERCADO DOMÉSTICO e FOB

  • Demanda um pouco mais aquecida que nas semanas anteriores no FOB exportação, mas ainda em volumes abaixo do normal para o período de safra, assim como os negócios no mercado doméstico;
  • Os produtores seguem extremamente firmes nos preços, acreditando em novas altas;
  • O bica corrida good cup ofertado entre R$1050 a 1070 e fine cup a R$ 1100 a 1120;
  • Os negócios back-to-back de Rio Minas estão praticamente sem liquidez, devido a oferta muito menor que nos anos anteriores por menor volume de safra e falta de chuvas. Quando surge vendedor, são lotes pequenos de 500 a 1000 sacas, com pedida de R$ 1080 para a peneira 17/18 e R$1050 para a peneira 14/16;
  • Há relatos de dealers no exterior que ainda possuem estoque de Rio Minas e de estarem comercializando a qualidade a preços mais atrativos que na origem;
  • Colheita da safra 21/22 de arábica no Brasil caminha para o fim, estimada em 95% já colhida e tem boa qualidade de bebida e peneira;
  • A colheita agora está na fase de varrição e repasse na maioria das lavouras, ou ainda nas plantas em regiões mais altas, onde a maturação é mais tardia.

LOGÍSTICA
Segue, porém ainda pior, o cenário de dificuldades na logística marítma:

  • Há grande escassez de contêineres padrão alimento, rolagem de navios e aumentos diários e expressivos dos fretes internacionais;
  • Já não há mais espaço disponível para embarque em setembro para a grande maioria dos destinos, apenas meados de outubro;
  • Para os EUA, apenas embarques a partir de novembro em algumas rotas.;
  • Todas essas dificuldades têm gerado muito retrabalho e custos extras na operação logística das exportadoras, além de atraso nos embarques de café, afetando a programação das indústrias no exterior.

COVID-19 NO BRASIL
Pessoas que receberam a primeira dose: +133 mi (62,37% da população)
Pessoas totalmente vacinadas: +64.6 mi (30,3% da população)
Casos: + 20.67 milhões
Mortes: 577.605 mil 

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