Weekly Report - Brazilian Coffee market - Oct 12-16, 2020 - Atlantica

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KCNY and BRL / USD
KCZ0 had few fluctuations, ranging from 106.50 to 113.35, slightly higher than the previous week. BRL/USD traded between a low of 5.5209 and a high of 5.6467. The real operates this Friday at around 5.62 against the US dollar. According to the GCA, US stocks fell to 6.4 million bags (-5.09% or -341k bags). The recent outbreaks of Covid-19 around the world worry the market.

DOMESTIC AND FOB MARKET
Producers are not eager for new business at the current levels, as they are well sold and believe in the resumption of coffee prices for the crop conditions, climate and off-crop cycle of the next crop in Brazil. The flow of coffee in the general warehouses is high and there is little space available. In the foreign market, there were few deals of low volumes.

WEATHER
Throughout the week, irregular and scattered rains and milder temperatures were recorded, important elements for the second flowering. However, volumes are well below the historical average for the month. There have been reports of hail in some places. Meteorologists forecast more regular rains over coffee plantations from October 25.

CERRADO AND MOGIANA REGIONS
During this week we spoke with 31 coffee producers, partners of Atlantica in the regions of Mogiana and Cerrado. The respondents reported that in the last few days, between 5 and 15 mm of rain precipitated, however, due to the long period of drought and high temperatures, the volume still is not enough to recover the vegetative vigor and development of crops.

Climatic conditions already damage and delay cultural treatments, such as fertilization and spraying. There are reports of a high incidence of leaf miner, which cause defoliation in plants. In irrigated areas there is great concern with the water reservoirs, which are low.

SEPTEMBER EXPORTS – CECAFE
According to the CECAFE report released on Tuesday, Brazil recorded the highest historical record for the month of September in coffee exports of all types, totalling about 3.8 million 60 kg bags. Arabica green coffee represented 74.8% of the total exports, registering 2.8 million bags.

In relation to the same period of the previous year, there was an increase of 8.6% in the total volume exported. Foreign exchange revenue was USD 458 million (+3.6% pa) and R$ 2.5 billion (+ 35.7% pa) when converted to reais. The positive performance was largely due to the high volume harvested and sold in the 20/21 crop and the strong devaluation of the Brazilian currency. The average price per bag was USD 120.69 (-4.6% p.a.).

INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS
During the pandemic, the strong devaluation of the real discouraged Brazilian imports, reducing the entry of containers into the country and increasing blank sailings.

According to Datamar, about 251,000 containers left the country in August, while only 172,000 arrived. Brazilian coffee exports already feel the impacts of the trade imbalance, which according to CECAFÉ, could have been 10 to 15% better had it not been for the challenges of international logistics.

With the entry of the high volume of the 20/21 coffee crop to be shipped in the coming months and with the real still in the ranking of the weakest currencies in the world, this situation may become even worse. There are reports that there is no more allocation for some routes in 2020 with first-rate ship-owners, even for large international cargo agents.

As we have been highlighting in all our market reports, in this scenario it is essential to act in advance in bookings. We reinforce the request for customers to send Shipping Instructions in advance and to certify with the ship-owner when closing the freight contract if there are guaranteed units.

Lets keep believing and investing in the culture of coffee so together we can keep moving coffee forward!

Stay well,
Atlantica Coffee Team