Relatório Semanal – Mercado de café no Brasil – 23 a 27 nov 2020 | Atlantica
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Relatório Semanal – Mercado de café no Brasil – 23 a 27 nov 2020

por nov 27, 2020Relatório de mercado54 Comentários

KCNY e BRL/USD
Durante a semana, H1 oscilou entre 115.60 e 124.40. O real operou em relação ao dólar entre 5.2840 e 5.4501. Nesta sexta feira, após a reabertura do mercado na volta do feriado norte-americano de Thankskiving, foram registradas altas acima de 500 pontos em KCNY e BRL/USD opera entre 5.3249 – 5.3786.

Os preços de café em ICENY refletiram as previsões de produção no Brasil para a próxima safra e a persistência dos volumes de chuva abaixo da média histórica. A queda do dólar também deu suporte às altas em KCNY, com os avanços das vacinas contra a Covid-19 e maior avidez dos investidores por moedas menos seguras.

TEMPO/CLIMA
A semana foi marcada por fortes chuvas no Sudeste, características do mês de novembro. Entretanto, o acumulado nas regiões produtoras de café ainda está abaixo da média histórica para o mês, o que pode comprometer a safra 2021/2022 do maior produtor mundial de café.

Segundo a Somar Meteorologia, as chuvas retornarão por cerca de dois dias a partir da terça feira no Paraná (15 mm), Mogiana (20 mm) e Sul de Minas Gerais (10 mm).

MERCADO DOMÉSTICO E FOB
Mercado pouco ativo, tanto no mercado doméstico quanto nas vendas para exportação. Os produtores, preocupados com o tamanho da próxima safra, estão mais conservadores nas vendas futuras de 21/22. O menor volume de negócios também é reflexo de uma semana mais curta, com o mercado fechado na quinta-feira, devido ao feriado de Thanksgiving, nos EUA.

Na maioria das regiões cafeeiras do Brasil, foram realizadas podas drásticas este ano após a colheita de elevado volume. Muitos cafeicultores relatam esperar por uma quebra de safra superior a 30% no ano que vem. Também há dificuldade em encontrar mudas de arábica nos viveiros e o preço unitário está superior aos anos anteriores.

EXPORTAÇÕES BRASIL – OUTUBRO 2020
De acordo com o relatório de exportações mensais dos Cafés do Brasil divulgado pela CECAFÉ, foram registrados novos recordes históricos para o mês de outubro, como abaixo:

  • 4,1 milhões de sacas de 60 kg de café de todos os tipos (+ 11,5% a.a.);
  • 3,3 milhões de sacas de 60 kg de café arábica (81,4% do total, +12,4% a.a.);
  • Receita cambial de US$ 509,6 milhões (+ 8,5% a.a.)
  • Receita cambial em reais de R$ 2,9 bilhões (+49,4% a.a., a maior receita dos últimos 5 anos)

LOGÍSTICA INTERNACIONAL NO BRASIL
A baixa disponibilidade de espaço em navios e escassez de containers padrão alimento, inclusive com os grandes armadores, seguem sendo realidade para os embarques do Brasil.

A compreensão e ajuda por parte dos importadores no envio antecipado de Shipping Instructions, é primordial para que assim possamos realizar antecipadamente os bookings, visando evitar atrasos nos embarques dos contratos de café nos portos brasileiros.

COVID-19
O Brasil tem mais de 171 mil mortes confirmadas e média móvel de óbitos de 479 (+19%), indicando tendência de alta. Ao todo são 6,2 M de casos desde o início da pandemia. Não há lockdowns no país.

Nesta semana, o mundo teve novo recorde diário de óbitos pela doença, ultrapassando 12.700 mortes em 24h, totalizando 1.4 mi vidas perdidas desde o início da pandemia. Algumas grandes economias globais, como os EUA e Alemanha, anunciaram a possível chegada de vacina em seus países ainda em 2020 o que trouxe grande ânimo ao mercado.

Vamos continuar acreditando e investindo na cultura do café!

Fiquem bem,
Equipe Atlantica Coffee

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