Relatório Semanal + Pesquisa de Safra 21/22 – Grupo Montesanto Tavares – 11 a 15 jan. 2021 | Atlantica
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Relatório Semanal + Pesquisa de Safra 21/22 – Grupo Montesanto Tavares – 11 a 15 jan. 2021

por jan 15, 2021Relatório de mercado55 Comentários

LEVANTAMENTO DA SAFRA 21/22 – Grupo Montesanto Tavares
O Grupo Montesanto Tavares divulga a primeira pesquisa sobre a safra 2021/2022 de café. A produção brasileira de café na temporada 2021/2022 deve chegar a 52,9 milhões de sacas, diminuição de 23% no comparativo com a safra 2020/2021, indicada em 68,21 milhões de sacas. A estimativa parte da pesquisa em campo em todas regiões produtoras desenvolvida pelo Grupo Montesanto Tavares e com dados fechados em 10 de janeiro de 2021.

Segundo o estudo, o principal motivo para esta diminuição vem da menor safra de café arábica na temporada 2021/2022. A produção brasileira de café arábica em 2021/22 deve atingir 31,23 milhões de sacas, 18,68 milhões de sacas a menos que em 2020/2021, devido ao ciclo bienal da cultura. Isso corresponde a uma queda de 37,5%. Já a safra 2021/2022 de café conilon tem previsão de alta de 17,8% em relação ao período anterior e deve chegar a 21,67 milhões de sacas.

Para Ricardo Tavares, presidente do Grupo, apesar da quebra expressiva na safra total de café no Brasil indicada pela pesquisa, o país se manterá como maior produtor mundial e o mercado deverá reagir com uma alta de preços da commodity.

KCNY e BRL/USD
Em uma semana de elevada volatilidade, H1 rompeu os 131.75 usc/lb e registrou a mínima de 118.75 usc/lb. O real, mais forte, oscilou entre 5.192 e 5.4627, operando nesta sexta-feira na casa dos 5.28 em relação ao dólar. As estimativas de quebra de safra e a valorização do real ajudaram a pressionar altas do arábica no mercado.

TEMPO/CLIMA
De acordo com a Somar Meteorologia, nos últimos sete dias, foram registrados volumes de chuva acima de 75 mm nas regiões produtoras mineiras como no Sul de Minas e Cerrado Mineiro. Na Mogiana paulista, houve volumes acima de 20 mm.

Para os próximos 20 dias, há previsão de chuvas fortes e condições atmosféricas para invernadas entre São Paulo e Minas Gerais, que podem favorecer doenças fúngicas. Previsão para os próximos 5 dias: Mogiana (75 mm), Cerrado (75 mm), Sul de Minas (100 mm).

MERCADO DOMÉSTICO E FOB
Muitos produtores estiveram fora do mercado nesta semana, com avidez seletiva para negócios mais atrativos. De acordo com Safras e Mercados, cerca de 78% da safra 21/21 do Brasil já está comercializada pelos produtores. Os armazéns gerais e a logística interna apresentam fluxo normal de operações. Entretanto, fala-se de greve dos caminhoneiros prevista para 1 de fevereiro.

LOGÍSTICA INTERNACIONAL NO BRASIL
A situação de baixa disponibilidade de contêineres nos portos brasileiros parece se agravar, uma vez que muitos contêineres vazios estão sendo direcionados do Brasil para atender a elevada – e atrativa – demanda de fretes entre a China e os portos europeus/norte-americanos. Além disso, o elevado fluxo de exportação das safras brasileiras e o baixo fluxo de importações, devido a alta do dólar, também são fatores responsáveis pelo desbalanceamento. Observamos dificuldades com a disponibilidade de contêineres com os armadores CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, Evergreen, entre outros.

COVID-19 NO BRASIL
O início das vacinações no Brasil está previsto para 20 ou 21 de janeiro, pendente ainda da decisão da Anvisa sobre pedidos de autorização para uso emergencial das vacinas do Instituto Butantan e da Fiocruz, respectivamente a CoronaVac e a AstraZeneca-Oxford.

Casos: 8,32 M
Mortes: 207 mil
Recuperados: 7,39 M

Vamos continuar acreditando e investindo na cultura do café!

Fiquem bem,
Equipe Atlantica Coffee

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