KCNY and Currency
This week, coffee prices have traded between 175.05 and 185.7, an accumulated weekly variation of 1065 points, with the greatest volatility recorded on Wednesday (06), when a variation of 850 points was observed for the March/24 expiration date.
The exchange rate has fluctuated between 4.8770 and 4.9673 so far. Labor market data from the United States was released, indicating a slowdown in the American economy. In addition, the market continues to expect central bank tightening to cease. Attention was also focused on waiting for the payroll data, which shows the next steps for the US economy. The result was positive, with Fed policymakers possibly asking for a wait before talking about easing interest rates.
A cold front is advancing towards the coast of the country and could cause weather instability in the main producing regions, with widespread rain expected towards the end of the week.
Certified stocks rose during the week, with a total of 10,633 new bags certified, bringing the total to 234,699 bags, with 20,858 pending approval.
MARCH/24: Min: 175.05 | Max: 185.70 | Last: 175.65
BRL/USD: Min: 4.8770 | Max: 4.9673 | Last: 4.9084
*Data up to the finalization of this report
WEATHER
The cold front arriving this Friday (08) on the coast of the Southeast is expected to cause moderate rainfall over the next few days in all coffee-growing regions.
Between Friday and Sunday, the highest volumes are expected in the South Minas, Garça and Mogiana regions. Between Sunday and Thursday (14), moderate rain is expected in the Cerrado and southern Espírito Santo regions.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 60 and 70 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 40 and 50 mm.
Cerrado region: between 40 and 50 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 60 and 70 mm.
Garça region: between 30 and 40 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
During the week on the domestic market, a few one-off deals were made, but in general the week was calm and without many negotiations on either the spot or futures markets. On the FOB, there were some demands for delivery and shipment between February and June, but some buyers decided to wait a little longer before making a decision due to market fluctuations. In general, buyers are keeping an eye out for updates from sellers on European law. For July onwards, demand is already EUDR compliant, but in small quantities.
The requests from sellers in the domestic were as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 920.00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 970.00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 790.00
600 defects: close to R$ 730.00
LOGISTICS
- According to the Detention Zero Bulletin (DTZ) by ElloX Digital in partnership with the Coffee Exporters Council of Brazil (Cecafé), November saw changes in 81% of ship calls at the Port of Santos, reaching the highest rate in 2023. The information is from the Notícias Agrícolas portal.
Ships departing in 2023 are already severely restricted in terms of allocating new bookings. We warn of the need to revalidate freight contracts for 2024. Stations in RIO and SANTOS are still facing low stocks of food grade containers, especially 20′ containers.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.