KCNY and Currency
For the May/24 expiration date, the most liquid, prices were between 177.50 and 185.70 cents/lb, fluctuating by 820 points over the week. The market continues to follow the development of Brazilian crops, with a positive outlook for the start of the 24/25 harvest, which is expected to start a little earlier in some producing regions.
StoneX said in a report that, from a fundamentals point of view, the prospect of higher coffee production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season contributes “to a feeling that the supply and demand balance will be more comfortable, at least for arabica coffee”. Itaú BBA also said in its monthly report that, “although estimates for the 2024 Brazilian crop, as always, vary widely, the bias is for growth over the previous year”.
The dollar was quoted between R$4.9284 and R$4.9983 during the week, approaching the R$5.00 level on Thursday (29), the last day of the month, due to the formation of the February PTAX.
On Friday (23), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a report on the position of traders in the market for the week ended Tuesday (20), in which the funds reduced their long position by 3,856 lots, totaling 34,206 against a previous balance of 38,062. A new report with the position for the week ended on the 27th should be released this Friday (01).
Certified stocks of coffee on the NY ICE closed on Thursday (29) at 353,606 60 kg bags. There are currently 149,251 bags of coffee awaiting approval, of which 114,998 are of Brazilian origin.
Certified stocks of coffee on the NY ICE closed on Thursday (29) at 353,606 60 kg bags. There are currently 149,251 bags of coffee awaiting approval, of which 114,998 are of Brazilian origin.
MAY/24: Min: 177.50 | Max: 185.70 | Last: 183.30
BRL/USD: Min: 4.9284 | Max: 4.9983 | Last: 4.9541
*Data up to the finalization of this report
WEATHER
The cold front that arrived in the Southeast on Thursday (29) is weak in intensity but should cause light to moderate rainfall until March 3 in some coffee-growing regions. There is a chance of rain in northern Espírito Santo and southern Bahia over the weekend.
A new cold front is expected to arrive in the Southeast of Brazil and cause moderate rainfall between March 5 and 8 in the Garça, Mogiana, South Minas and Cerrado regions.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 60 and 70 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 60 and 70 mm.
Cerrado region: between 60 and 70 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 30 and 40 mm.
Garça region: between 30 and 40 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
On the physical market, orders from the selling end remained stable this week, so the market is still mismatched given the lower bases for buyers. On the FOB, there are many orders for hedging and short-term shipments, while demand for the new crop is still slow.
The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller around BRL 1,010.00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller around BRL 1,060.00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades around BRL 900.00
600 defects: around BRL 860.00
LOGISTICS
- According to information published on the A Tribuna portal, the Union of Maritime Shipping Agencies of the State of São Paulo (Sindamar) is reporting persistent difficulties in supplying cargo ships at the port of Santos, which have been going on for at least two years. According to the organization, the accumulated loss exceeds US$ 4 million. In addition, Sindamar points out that two of the seven barges used for bunker (fuel) operations are out of service, further aggravating the situation.
We haven’t had any new bookings denied due to lack of space on the ship, but some shipowners have low stocks of food grade containers in the Port of Rio and are declining new bookings for this reason.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.