KCNY and Currency
The current geopolitical situation, marked by the conflict in the Red Sea, keeps logistics, especially for Robusta coffee (Conilon), on high alert. Robusta, cultivated in regions like Vietnam, faces significant challenges in transportation due to the conflict, directly impacting its main routes. China, aware of the logistical impacts in the Suez Canal, is attempting a pacification effort to safeguard its own interests.
Brazil’s coffee exports have shown a notable difference in January this year. The emissions were 4.32 million bags, contrasting with the 3.62 million bags effectively shipped. The strike by federal revenue inspectors at the Port of Santos significantly contributed to this logistical discrepancy.
On the other hand, the Brazilian Association of the Coffee Industry (ABIC) reports a 1.64% increase in domestic coffee consumption, reaching a total of 21.675 million bags from November 2022 to October 2023.
As for certified stocks on ICE, until February 1st, there was an increase of +12,687 approved bags, totaling 261,893 bags. However, there is a decrease of -2,949 bags pending approval, with 70,759 bags awaiting analysis.
In the global economic scenario, the Federal Reserve (FED) highlights the fall in inflation as a positive development. However, it should be noted that in order to cut interest rates, a higher rate of strength is needed. At the last meeting, held on Wednesday, interest rates were maintained.
In Brazil, the Central Bank (BACEN) implemented a 0.5% reduction, setting the rate at 11.25%. The entity justifies this decision by pointing out that the scenario of inflation deceleration is consistent, aiming to balance monetary policies in the face of current economic challenges.
MARCH/24: Min: 188.65 | Max: 197.45 | Last: 192.20
BRL/USD: Min: 4.9052 | Max: 4.9811 | Last: 4.9718
*Data up to the finalization of this report
WEATHER
The cold front that has been acting in the Southeast of Brazil over the last few days has dissipated, causing the warm air mass to once again predominate in all coffee-growing regions. The heat combined with the high humidity should organize the famous summer rains in the coffee-growing regions, which are isolated rains that occur in the afternoon.
The climate forecast model shows that the rains in the first half of February should be isolated, mainly in the regions of Garça, Mogiana, South Minas and Cerrado. In the second half of the month, a cold front should once again be stationary between the states of Minas Gerais and Bahia, organizing heavy rains in the Zona da Mata regions, northern Espírito Santo and southern Bahia.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas region: between 30 and 40 mm.
Zona da Mata region: between 10 and 20 mm.
Cerrado region: between 20 and 30 mm.
Alta Mogiana region: between 30 and 40 mm.
Garça region: between 20 and 30 mm.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
On the FOB market, it was a week of high demand for coffee for immediate shipment. The price ideas between buyers and sellers remain mismatched, making some deals unfeasible. The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1,000.00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 1,050.00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 920.00
600 defects: close to R$ 870.00
LOGISTICS
- Tax auditors resumed their strike against cargo clearance activities at the Port of Santos on Wednesday (31), extending the mobilization until Saturday. During this period, there will also be no public service in any sector of the Federal Revenue Customs. The information is from the A Tribuna portal.
- According to the Notícias Agrícolas portal, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said that his government will not privatize the Port of Santos, a statement made on Friday during his visit to the port to announce investments.
In recent weeks we haven’t faced significant difficulties in terms of lack of space on ships leaving in the following weeks, but the low stock of equipment persists.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.