KCNY and Currency
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange worked in a range of 630 points in the week in the most liquid maturity, September/23, with a minimum of 155.50 cents/lb and a maximum of 161.80. The weather continues to favor the harvest of the 23/24 crop, without risk of frost, so this factor continues to pressure prices. It is estimated that the conilon harvest is in its final stretch in Brazil and arabica’s harvest progress is already around 50%.
In the exchange market, there’s a considerable amount of fluctuation in the exchange rates. The dollar and the real are locked in a battle, and the dollar’s exchange rate has been moving sideways for a few weeks now. The direction of the US interest rate versus uncertainties surrounding the new Brazilian tax reform and fiscal framework continues to be monitored.
Cecafe (Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil) released on Wednesday (12) its monthly report for June/23. A total of 35.6 million 60kg bags were exported in the 2022/2023 crop, a volume that represents a 10% drop compared to the 2021/2022 cycle. In June/2023, Brazil exported 2.640 million bags, down 17.2% compared to the same period in 2022.
Certified coffee stocks at NY ICE closed Thursday (13) at 545,503 60kg bags, showing little variation in total volume in the week compared to the previous week. There are currently 2,208 bags pending approval. A year ago, stocks totaled 759,695 bags of 60kgs.
SEPTEMBER/23: Min: 155,50 | Max: 161,80 | Last: 160,80
BRL/USD: Min: 4,785 | Max: 4,9225 | Last: 4.7950
*Data as of the completion of this report.
WEATHER
The polar air mass that came on the back of the extratropical cyclone, which strongly acted in the South of Brazil, arrives in the Southeast this weekend, dropping temperatures in the Southeast coffee regions.
During the next week, a new polar air mass will also reach the Southeast region. As a result, temperatures will remain mild throughout the days, but there is no risk of frost. There are only chances of showers in the region of Garça.
Rainfall forecast for the week
Garça region: Chances of showers between Monday and Tuesday. Light rainfall between 5 and 10 mm
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The harvest of the 23/24 crop continues to progress and the number of offers of new coffee in the domestic market continues to increase, however, many producers are not willing to sell at the current negotiated prices, so the number of deals reported in the week was more subtle. On the other hand, deals between merchants were more active. On FOB, differentials are stabilized favoring some negotiations.
The requests from sellers in the domestic market are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 800,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 850,00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 700,00
600 defects: close to R$ 730,00;
LOGISTICS
According to information obtained from the Notícias Agrícolas portal, the ports of Santos, Paranaguá and Antonina resumed their normal operations on Friday (14) after restrictions on ship movements on Thursday due to the passage of an extratropical cyclone through the south of the country, which brought intense winds.
Ports of Rio de Janeiro and Santos again showed little availability of food-grade containers, with the need to cancel some schedules. Ships scheduled to depart in the next 6 to 8 weeks are still showing availability.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.