KCNY and Currency
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange worked most of the time between 155 and 160 cents per pound, with a total amplitude of 705 points in the week in the most liquid maturity, September/23, but the closing week was higher with the prices of this Friday (21). The weather continues to favor the harvest of the 23/24 crop in Brazil, without risk of frost, and it is estimated that the progress of the arabica harvest has been halfway through, reaching 54.9% last weekend.
In the exchange rate there was not so much oscillation, the dollar and the real continue to measure strength, and the direction of both domestic and US interest rates are crucial factors. Emerging countries’ currencies that are peers of the real continue to face significant depreciation against the dollar.
Certified stocks of coffee in NY ICE closed Thursday (20) at 541,266 bags of 60kg. There are currently 4,371 bags pending approval, of which 4,096 are Colombian coffees. The origin, which had not certified coffee on the NY exchange for quite some time, resubmitted coffee for approval.
SEPTEMBER/23: Min: 155.05 | Max: 162.10 | Last: 161.85
BRL/USD: Min: 4.7610 | Max: 4.85 | Last: 4.7720
*Data as of the completion of this report.
WEATHER
The cold front that passed over the Southeast coast of Brazil in the last few days ended up organizing only clouds in some coffee regions, as the center of the frontal system’s low pressure was very far from the continent. And the polar air mass that followed the cold front caused only a slight drop in temperatures.
Next week will be marked by the presence of a dry air mass in almost all coffee regions, where the weather should be sunny, except for the regions of Northern Espírito Santo, Southern Bahia and Zona da Mata, where the maritime circulation should bring many clouds to these regions.
No rain is forecast for the week
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The harvest of the 23/24 crop continues to evolve, and it is possible to see a good number of offers internally, however producers remain firm in their bases. On the buyer side, NY ICE movements directly impact differentials, so with the dollar more stable in the week, the number of reported deals was lower. On FOB, differentials are stabilized favoring some negotiations, although the volume traded is below average for the period. The last weeks have been interesting for Rio Minas negotiations.
The requests from sellers in the domestic are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 800,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 840,00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 710,00
600 defects: close to R$ 710,00;
LOGISTICS
According to the news portal O Globo, the government of São Paulo is studying the construction of a new highway linking São Paulo city to the Port of Santos, in order to increase the traffic capacity of container trailers to the port.
During the week, we had no significant refusal of new bookings due to lack of allocation. Empty terminals (depots) operated with good volumes of food grade containers.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.