KCNY and Currency
The week was a little shorter in the quotation of coffee in the NY stock exchange, due to the holiday of “Juneteenth” on Monday (19). With this, on Tuesday, we could already observe the downward movement that is taking place this week, despite the daily volatility of prices. The quotations broke the 170 cents/lb mark and closed the week at 164.85 cents/lb, mainly influenced by the weather, which favors the progress of the 23/24 harvest.
Regarding the exchange rate, the Brazilian Real continues to strengthen against the US dollar. On the domestic front, the COPOM (Monetary Policy Committee) maintained the Selic rate at 13.75% p.a., as expected, despite positive economic indicators in the country that support the appreciation of the Real against the dollar. In the macroeconomic scenario, the President of the US Federal Reserve (FED) stated that interest rates, currently ranging from 5% to 5.25%, are expected to increase slightly.
Certified coffee stocks at NY ICE closed at 546,650 60kg bags on Thursday (22nd), with 3,540 bags pending approval. A year ago, stocks totaled 969,421 bags.
SEPTEMBER/23: Min: 164.05 | Max: 181.65 | Last: 164.85
BRL/USD: Min: 4.7513 | Max: 4.8299 | Last: 4.7770
*Data as of the completion of this report.
WEATHER
The cold front that is acting in the southern states of Brazil is expected to move to the Atlantic Ocean before reaching the coast of the country’s Southeast region, because the low pressure center that feeds the system is moving away from the continent.
The dry air mass will continue to act in the Southeast region over the next few days, making the arrival of cold fronts and the organization of rain clouds difficult. For the next few days, mild temperatures typical for the time of the year are expected, with no risk of frost.
No rain is forecast for the week.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
In the domestic market, prices continue to decline, following the movements of NY ICE. There is an ample coffee supply, although the price differentials are still slightly mismatched between buyers and sellers. With the progress of the harvest, offers of coffee from the 23/24 crop are steadily increasing. In the FOB market, it was a week of opportunities.
The ideas of sellers in the domestic are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 850,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 910,00
Rio Minas:
Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 750,00
17/18 around R$ 830,00
14/16 around R$ 800,00
600 defects: close to R$ 780,00;
LOGISTICS The main ports of northern Europe and North America already have restrictions on availability in the early July departures. We warn about the need to send shipping instructions in advance, considering the proximity of the coffee harvest and other commodities as well.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.