KCNY and Currency
Coffee prices on the New York futures market hit their lowest level in five months this week. The most liquid maturity, September/23, reached a low of 157.75 cents/lb on Thursday, although the closing price of the day was at 161.60 cents/lb. The weather continues to favor the advancement of the harvest of the new crop in Brazil, which is a factor that puts pressure on prices.
In the exchange rate, the dollar continues to operate stably below R$4.90. On the domestic scene, the National Monetary Council has maintained the inflation target at 3% for 2025, which generates bets on cuts in interest rates in the country. With the domestic scenario calmer and more optimistic, the currency operated according to the uncertainties about the macroeconomic environment. The president of the European Central Bank indicated that inflation in the euro zone is high and should remain so for some time. On the American scene, U.S. Treasury bond yields rise on uncertainty about the U.S. interest rate.
Certified coffee stocks on NY ICE closed Thursday (29) at 545,819 60kg bags, which 30.48% are coffees from Brazil, with 3,989 bags pending approval. A year ago, stocks totaled 887,431, which 43.38% of certified coffees were of Brazilian origin.
SEPTEMBER/23: Min: 157.75 | Max: 167.90 | Last: 159.00
BRL/USD: Min: 4.7516 | Max: 4.8730 | Last: 4.7950
*Data as of the completion of this report.
WEATHER
The cold front that passes along the coast of the Southeast region from today to Saturday is weak and should only cause an increase in cloudiness in the south of Minas Gerais and in the Zona da Mata region during the weekend. The polar air mass that comes in the back of the frontal system reaches the South of Brazil and moves quickly towards the Atlantic Ocean.
The week should be sunny during most of the day in all coffee regions in the Southeast.
No rain is forecast for the week.
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
The quotations in the domestic market were stable in differentials, following the movements of the NY ICE and the exchange rate, thus, still with many offers, prices were a little lower. In the FOB, with differentials more stabilized, demand is more heated. A good volume of business of Rio Minas has been reported in recent weeks.
The requests from sellers in the domestic market are as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 800,00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 850,00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 700,00
600 defects: close to R$ 740,00;
LOGISTICS
According to the portal A Tribuna, the company Evolve Empreendimentos was authorized by the Ministry of Ports and Airports to install a Private Use Terminal (TUP) in the Port of Santos. The investments planned for the Santos Sustainable Terminals (STS) are R$7.6 billion. It will mainly handle containers and bulk solids (grains, sugar and bran) and liquids (oil derivatives) at Ilha dos Bagres.
The main ports of northern Europe and North America have restrictions on availability for departures in July and August. We alert you to the need to send shipping instructions in advance, bearing in mind the proximity of the coffee harvest and also of other commodities.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.