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Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – November 13th ~ 17th 2023

by Nov 17, 2023Market report0 comments

KCNY and Currency

Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange worked between 165.60 and 176.35 cents per pound on the March/24 expiration date, the most liquid one, totaling a volatility of 1075 points for the week. The volatility is due to the same reasons as in recent weeks: concerns about certified stocks, the weather and fluctuations in the dollar.  

The exchange rate is also volatile, with the real and the dollar alternating positions, although the Brazilian currency appreciated 3.5% in the month to last Thursday (16). The expectation is that there will be no increase in US interest rates next year, which is an important factor for exchange rates. 

Cecafé (the Brazilian Coffee Exporters’ Council) released its report on Brazilian exports in October/23, totaling 4.356 million 60kg bags. This figure represents an increase of 21.8% in volume compared to the same period in 2022. Conilon exports continue to be significant, totaling 662,051 bags.  

Certified stocks of coffee on the NY ICE closed Thursday (16) at 289,699 60kg bags, with 7,550 bags pending approval. These levels are well below the historical average for the period. 

MARCH/24: Min: 165.60 | Max: 176.35 | Last: 167.20 
BRL/USD: Min: 4.8374 | Max: 4.9418 | Last: 4.8950 
*Data up to the finalization of this report 


WEATHER

The cold front that has been acting in the south of Brazil over the last few days will move into the southeast from Sunday and should cause rain and a slight drop in temperatures in the coffee-growing regions next week.  

There is a chance of heavy rain between Sunday and Monday in the regions of Garça, Mogiana and South Minas. Rain with lightning, gusts of wind and the possibility of hail.  

As expected, the accumulated rainfall for the month of November should be below the historical average in all coffee-growing regions. 

Rainfall forecast for the week:  

South Minas region: between 50 and 60 mm  

Zona da Mata region: between 40 and 50 mm  

Cerrado region: between 40 and 50 mm  

Alta Mogiana region: between 50 and 60 mm  

Garça region: between 50 and 60 mm 


DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB

The domestic market continues to have a good number of offers, but there is still little appetite from sellers to sell at the levels demanded by buyers. However, according to variations in the NY ICE and the dollar, some deals were reported. On the FOB, it’s possible to see demand for the short term among some roasters, with shipments for December and January, although they don’t find a wide range of offers among exporters. 

The requests from sellers in the domestic were as below:

Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 870.00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 930.00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 750.00
600 defects: close to R$ 730.00


LOGISTICS

  • According to the Tecnologística news portal, Santos Brasil is investing in the acquisition of ten electric cranes and is making progress in decarbonizing operations at the Port of Santos;  
  • Also, according to the portal, the Port of Itaguaí, managed by PortosRio, recorded a volume of 15.9 million tons in the third quarter of this year, a figure that represents 13.2% of the total cargo handled by the country’s public ports, marking an increase of 8.6% compared to the same period last year.  

For another week, ship departure schedules were heavily impacted by the insufficient availability of food grade containers, resulting in the postponement of some shipments. Ships scheduled to leave by mid-December are still not restricted in terms of new bookings. 

Atlantica Coffee Team

Disclaimer: 

This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.