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Weekly report – Brazilian Coffee Market – October 16nd ~ 20th 2023

by Oct 20, 2023Market report0 comments

KCNY and Currency

Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange worked between 152.10 and 166.80 cents per pound for the December/23 expiration date, with high volatility of 1470 points over the week. Several factors have had an impact on this upward movement in prices: low certified stocks for the period, speculation about the 24/25 crop due to the weather and fluctuations in the dollar. 

In terms of the exchange rate, concerns about US interest rates and the war in the Middle East involving Israel and Hamas contribute to an environment of uncertainty and volatility, which is why the dollar fluctuated between R$5.0084 and R$5.0981.  

Last week Cecafé released a report on Brazilian coffee exports in September/23, which totaled 3.294 million 60kg bags, implying a drop of 5.3% compared to the same period in 2022. It is worth noting that of this figure, 624,999 60kg bags were conilon, which is a representative amount.  

Certified stocks of coffee on the NY ICE closed Thursday (19) at 421,614 60kg bags, with no bags left pending approval. The volume is well below the average for this period of the year, when it was expected that there would be an increase in the flow of coffees to be certified. 

DECEMBER/23: Min: 152.10 | Max: 166.80 | Last: 165.25 
BRL/USD: Min: 5.0084 | Max: 5.0981 | Last: 5.0366 
*Data up to the finalization of this report 


WEATHER

The cold front that passed through the Southeast of Brazil in recent days ended up organizing light rain in some coffee-growing regions. The polar air mass that came in behind the frontal system caused temperatures to drop in some regions.  

A new cold front arrives next Wednesday, the 25th, in the Southeast of Brazil and is expected to cause moderate to heavy rain in the regions of South Minas, Mogiana, Garça, Cerrado and Zona da Mata. There are no rain forecasts for the northern regions of Espírito Santo and southern Bahia.  

Rain forecast for the week:  

South Minas, Zona da Mata, Cerrado, Alta Mogiana and Garça regions: between 50 and 70 mm 


DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB

On the domestic market, a good number of deals were reported this week, slightly improving producers’ willingness to sell as a result of the upward movements on the NY ICE, although buyers’ bases have not kept pace with the advances in coffee prices on the exchange. Warehouses are full and there is plenty of coffee to be traded. On the FOB, some short-term demand has appeared, but more business has been seen for shipments in 2024. 

The requests from sellers in the domestic were as below:

Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 850.00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 900.00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 750.00
600 defects: close to R$ 710.00


LOGISTICS

  • According to the Notícias Agrícolas portal, Brazil’s agricultural commodity export hubs are overwhelmed with record volumes of soybeans, corn and sugar being moved, coinciding with the period of increased rainfall in the southern ports. This has resulted in delays in coffee shipments due to a shortage of container trucks, as well as longer waiting times to load ships. 
  • According to the A Tribuna news portal, the Santos Brasil container terminal will allocate part of its investments to the acquisition of sustainable equipment. 

The empty terminals at the port of Santos have once again been affected by the insufficient availability of equipment, which has resulted in some delays.  

New outbound bookings until mid-November are still being confirmed with no apparent space restrictions. 

Atlantica Coffee Team

Disclaimer: 

This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.