KCNY and Currency
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange ranged between 160.20 and 169.05 cents per pound for the December/23 expiration date, totaling a volatility of 885 points for the week, of which 810 points on Wednesday’s trading session alone (25). The weather continues to be favorable and expectations for the 24/25 crop remain on the radar, as does the NY ICE certified stock.
On the exchange rate, the atmosphere of uncertainty continues. The week saw the release of the US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 0.4% in September/23, showing an increase in inflation in the country. This indicator is important in defining American monetary policies and is used by the FED. The direction of US interest rates is a constant topic, and so the dollar was quoted at between R$4.9309 and R$5.0536 during the week.
The latest report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) published traders’ positions up to October 17, where the net short position of funds fell from 24,406 to 15,781 lots, down 35.34%, which is also a factor observed by the market.
Certified coffee stocks on the NY ICE closed Thursday (26) at 406,466 60-kg bags and there are currently no bags pending approval. The volume of certified coffees on the exchange is lower than the average for this period of the year and this factor also contributes to the recent fluctuations seen on NY ICE.
DECEMBER/23: Min: 160.20 | Max: 169.05 | Last: 160.95
BRL/USD: Min: 4.9309 | Max: 5.0536 | Last: 5.0052
*Data up to the finalization of this report
WEATHER
The cold front that arrived last Tuesday in the Southeast of Brazil ended up organizing light rains in all the coffee-growing regions. Weather models show that the end of October and the beginning of November will be rainy, as two more cold fronts are expected to arrive in the Southeast in the coming days.
Climate forecast models show that the highest volumes of rainfall in November will be observed in the Cerrado, South Minas, Mogiana, Matas de Minas and Garça regions. No significant rainfall is forecast for the regions of southern Bahia and northern Espírito Santo.
Rain forecast for the week:
South Minas, Matas de Minas, Cerrado, Alta Mogiana and Garça regions: between 70 and 100 mm
DOMESTIC MARKET and FOB
In view of the volatility on the NY ICE during the week, the domestic market worked with a lot of offers during the upswings, and after Wednesday’s movements it became more cautious. On the FOB, Group 1 deals were more active, while Rio Minas deals were lower compared to previous weeks, as the flat price values were not equivalent to buyers’ expectations.
The requests from sellers in the domestic were as below:
Strictly soft good cup running screen: seller close to R$ 850.00
Strictly soft fine cup running screen: seller close to R$ 900.00
Rio Minas: Running screen with 25% low grades close to R$ 750.00
600 defects: close to R$ 710.00
LOGISTICS
- As reported by the A Tribuna news portal, the Tecon Santos Container Terminal is driving Santos Brasil’s investments in the Port of Santos. The project to expand and update this unit is estimated at R$2.6 billion, in updated values, by 2031, which will result in an increase in the terminal’s capacity to 3 million TEU (unit of measurement equivalent to a 20-foot container) per year.
This week, shipping companies once again presented low stocks at the Port of Santos, severely impacting schedules. The restriction of space on ships leaving in the next 4 to 6 weeks is also already significant. We reiterate the need to send out shipping instructions in advance, in order to guarantee space on ships and in warehouses.
Atlantica Coffee Team
Disclaimer:
This analysis report aims only to provide information about the coffee market, based on internal and public sources, valid at the time of its dissemination. It does not aim to guide recipients in making any decisions, which are therefore solely the responsibility of the recipient. Atlantica Coffee is exempt from any liability arising from direct or indirect losses.