The weather presents significant challenges for Brazilian coffee growers. Check out the weather forecasts for the coming months and their impact on coffee production in Brazil, with insights from Ruibran dos Reis.
The global context puts the climate in the spotlight, especially with the historic temperatures recorded in July. The transition from La Niña to El Niño is already having repercussions on coffee plantations, and this change is analyzed in detail.
Brazilian coffee growing has faced significant challenges due to climatic conditions. In the last five years, devastating frosts have hit several producing regions, including the South of Minas. However, it’s not just frosts that have an impact on production; excessive heat, a lack of rainfall at crucial times and excessive precipitation in winter all interfere with crops.
The balance and attention of coffee growers are essential to mitigate the effects of the weather. Reliable weather forecasts are an ally for those who depend on nature all year round. To shed light on climatic factors, we relied on the expertise of Ruibran dos Reis, a professor, researcher, meteorologist and coffee producer in the Matas de Minas region.
“Coffee-growing is very dependent on the weather,” begins Ruibran, who, in a simple comparison, brings us a thought: “Imagine that all year round, our product is exposed to the open sky. The producer depends on the weather, if it’s going to be sunny, if it’s going to rain, everything,” he concludes.
Analysis of the First Half of 2023
The first six months of 2023 brought positive aspects for coffee growing in the Southeastern region of Brazil and southern of Bahia. According to Ruibran dos Reis, the distribution of rainfall was favorable. “The reduction in rainfall happened in March, due to La Niña, which began to occur in 2020 and brought us a lot of rain. Last year the rains were late, they started in October. This had an impact on flowering and, consequently, production.”
Transition from La Niña to El Niño
In the last three years, the phenomenon of La Nina was active, i.e. the temperature of the seawater off the coast of Peru and Ecuador was below average. Therefore, the polar air masses reached the Southeast more easily and the rainfall was above average. From March onwards there was a phase change from La Nina to El Nino. Normally in El Nino years, the winter is not so harsh in the Southeast and heat waves occur in late winter and early spring. The rainy season is delayed, starting in November.
For arabica coffee, it’s good that it doesn’t rain in June, July and August, so that the plant receives water in September and goes on to flowering. However, due to the weather and a fast cold front that brought a little rain to some regions, producers were faced with an early start to flowering, which could compromise the quantity of fruit.
“In 2018, we had a lot of rain in August, and this damaged 2019 production and brought problems such as the coffee berry borer. In other words, it’s important that it doesn’t rain at this time to avoid these early blooms, which end up aborting,” explains Ruibran.
Forecast for the coming months
September and October should bring timely rains to Minas Gerais. In November, there will be significant rainfall in São Paulo, in the Mogiana and Garça regions. However, December will bring a decrease in rainfall, and attention will turn to January and February. During these months, the effects of El Niño will be felt with a lack of rainfall and the presence of veranicos, periods without rain in the summer, accompanied by higher temperatures. Producers should consider these forecasts when planning soil management, pests and costs for 2024. Please note that these are only forecasts.
It is important to remember that irrigated coffee growing is not yet significant in mountainous regions such as the South of Minas and the Matas de Minas. Therefore, management strategies and soil corrections are important in order to take advantage of the rains at the end of 2023. With so many factors at play, monitoring pests, diseases and soil conditions is essential to mitigate the impacts.
Coffee growing has been impacted by climate change, which brings climate variability, the extremes, as the professional explains: “It rains a lot, then there’s a long drought, there’s no middle ground. Temperatures are fluctuating wildly and we’re forecasting record highs for the end of winter and the beginning of spring, Ruibran explains.
The challenges of 2024 are already taking shape. Being up to date with information from reliable sources is one of the ways to prepare for the effects of the climate and make assertive decisions about farming.
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